IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v26y2009i3p715-720.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Metzlerian business cycle model with nonlinear heterogeneous expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Wegener, Michael
  • Westerhoff, Frank
  • Zaklan, Georg

Abstract

Metzler's model is an important contribution to our understanding of the dynamics of business cycles. In his model, the production of consumption goods depends on expected future sales. However, Metzler assumes that producers are homogeneous and follow a simple expectation formation rule. Taking into account that in reality producers might not only follow several expectation formation rules, but might also even switch between them, we reformulate Metzler's original model. As it turns out endogenous business cycles may emerge within our model, i.e. changes in production and inventory are (quasi-)periodic for certain parameter combinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Wegener, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank & Zaklan, Georg, 2009. "A Metzlerian business cycle model with nonlinear heterogeneous expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 715-720, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:715-720
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(09)00030-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eckalbar, John C, 1985. "Inventory Fluctuations in a Disequilibrium Macro Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(380), pages 976-991, December.
    2. Masahiro Ashiya, 2007. "Consensus and accuracy of Japanese GDP forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(13), pages 969-974.
    3. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    4. Matsumoto, Akio, 1998. "Non-linear structure of a Metzlerian inventory cycle model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 481-492, January.
    5. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    6. Puu, Tonu, 2007. "The Hicksian trade cycle with floor and ceiling dependent on capital stock," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 575-592, February.
    7. Franke, Reiner, 1996. "A Metzlerian model of inventory growth cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 243-262, June.
    8. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521558747, September.
    9. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    10. Herbert A. Simon, 1955. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 69(1), pages 99-118.
    11. Chiarella,Carl & Flaschel,Peter & Franke,Reiner, 2011. "Foundations for a Disequilibrium Theory of the Business Cycle," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521369923, September.
    12. repec:bla:scandj:v:95:y:1993:i:3:p:355-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Frank Westerhoff, 2006. "Samuelson's multiplier-accelerator model revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 89-92.
    14. Schnader, M. H. & Stekler, H. O., 1991. "Do consensus forecasts exist?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 165-170, August.
    15. Puu, Tonu & Gardini, Laura & Sushko, Irina, 2005. "A Hicksian multiplier-accelerator model with floor determined by capital stock," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 331-348, March.
    16. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521551861, September.
    17. Frank H. Westerhoff, 2006. "Business Cycles, Heuristic Expectation Formation, and Contracyclical Policies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 8(5), pages 821-838, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Wegener & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 251-273, April.
    2. Michael Wegener, 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations and debt in a growth model for a small open economy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(1), pages 125-136, April.
    3. Ogawa, Shogo, 2024. "Perceived and expected quantity constraints in inventory dynamics," MPRA Paper 120629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Karsten Kohler & Robert Calvert Jump, 2022. "Estimating Nonlinear Business Cycle Mechanisms with Linear Vector Autoregressions: A Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1077-1100, October.
    5. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Capital and inventory investments under quantity constraints: A microfounded Metzlerian model," MPRA Paper 111906, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michael Wegener & Frank Westerhoff, 2012. "Evolutionary competition between prediction rules and the emergence of business cycles within Metzler’s inventory model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 251-273, April.
    2. Lines Marji & Westerhoff Frank, 2012. "Effects of Inflation Expectations on Macroeconomic Dynamics: Extrapolative Versus Regressive Expectations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-30, October.
    3. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Capital and inventory investments under quantity constraints: A microfounded Metzlerian model," MPRA Paper 111906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
    5. Michael Wegener, 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations and debt in a growth model for a small open economy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(1), pages 125-136, April.
    6. Westerhoff Frank H., 2006. "Nonlinear Expectation Formation, Endogenous Business Cycles and Stylized Facts," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Matsumoto, Akio & Szidarovszky, Ferenc, 2015. "Nonlinear multiplier–accelerator model with investment and consumption delays," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-9.
    8. Dalla, Eleni & Varelas, Erotokritos, 2016. "An economic model for the interpretation of business cycles and the efficiency of monetary policy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PA), pages 29-38.
    9. Ogawa, Shogo, 2024. "Perceived and expected quantity constraints in inventory dynamics," MPRA Paper 120629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bottazzi, Giulio, 2010. "Market equilibria under procedural rationality," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1140-1172, November.
    11. Gomes, Orlando, 2008. "Too much of a good thing: Endogenous business cycles generated by bounded technological progress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 933-945, September.
    12. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Time Preference and Cyclical Endogenous Growth in an AK Growth Model," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 28, pages 32-55, December.
    13. Cees Diks & Cars Hommes & Valentyn Panchenko & Roy Weide, 2008. "E&F Chaos: A User Friendly Software Package for Nonlinear Economic Dynamics," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 221-244, September.
    14. Quemin, Simon & Trotignon, Raphaël, 2021. "Emissions trading with rolling horizons," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Gian Italo Bischi & Ugo Merlone, 2017. "Evolutionary minority games with memory," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 859-875, November.
    16. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186, Elsevier.
    17. Bischi, Gian-Italo & Gallegati, Mauro & Gardini, Laura & Leombruni, Roberto & Palestrini, Antonio, 2006. "Herd Behavior And Nonfundamental Asset Price Fluctuations In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(4), pages 502-528, September.
    18. Pengfei Liu & Stephen K. Swallow & Christopher M. Anderson, 2016. "Threshold-Level Public Goods Provision with Multiple Units: Experimental Effects of Disaggregated Groups with Rebates," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 92(3), pages 515-533.
    19. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Survey of non-Walrasian disequilibrium economic theory," MPRA Paper 115011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Anufriev, Mikhail & Dindo, Pietro, 2010. "Wealth-driven selection in a financial market with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 327-358, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:3:p:715-720. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.