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Nonlinear Expectation Formation, Endogenous Business Cycles and Stylized Facts

  • Westerhoff Frank H.

    ()

    (University of Osnabrueck)

We modify Samuelson’s multiplier-accelerator model to explore the influence of expectations on fluctuations in economic activity. Within our model, the agents use a nonlinear mix of extrapolative and regressive forecast rules to predict the output. Our model is able to mimic some generic features of business cycles. In particular, consumption is procyclical and fluctuates less than output while investment is procyclical and fluctuates more than output.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 1-17

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:10:y:2006:i:4:n:4
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  1. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
  2. Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  3. Hommes, Cars H., 1995. "A reconsideration of Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 435-459, December.
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  5. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  6. Takatoshi Ito, 1988. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John Foster & Burkhard Flieth, 2002. "Interactive expectations," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 375-395.
  8. Giorgio Rodano & Gian Italo Bischi & Enrico Saltari & Roberto Dieci, 2001. "Multiple attractors and global bifurcations in a Kaldor-type business cycle model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 11(5), pages 527-554.
  9. Frank Westerhoff, 2006. "Samuelson's multiplier-accelerator model revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 89-92.
  10. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
  11. Hohnisch, Martin & Pittnauer, Sabine & Solomon, Sorin & Stauffer, Dietrich, 2005. "Socioeconomic interaction and swings in business confidence indicators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 646-656.
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  13. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521484619 is not listed on IDEAS
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