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Exchange rate dynamics, central bank interventions and chaos control methods

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  • Frank Westerhoff

    (University of Osnabrueck, Department of Economics)

  • Cristian Wieland

    (University of Osnabrueck, Department of Economics)

Abstract

We use a simple chartist-fundamentalist model developed by Day and Huang to explore recent chaos control algorithms as potential candidates for central bank intervention rules. We find that methods such as delayed feedback control, OGY and constant feedback have, in principle, the potential to reduce exchange rate variability and deviations from fundamentals even in the presence of large dynamic noise.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Westerhoff & Cristian Wieland, "undated". "Exchange rate dynamics, central bank interventions and chaos control methods," Modeling, Computing, and Mastering Complexity 2003 22, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:cplx03:22
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
    3. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
    4. Jackson, Antony & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Market ecologies: The effect of information on the interaction and profitability of technical trading strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 270-280.
    5. S. Reitz & F. Westerhoff & C. Wieland, 2006. "Target Zone Interventions and Coordination of Expectations," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 453-467, February.
    6. Kopel, Michael & Westerhoff, Frank & Wieland, Cristian, 2008. "Regulating complex dynamics in firms and economic systems," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 911-919.
    7. Demosthenes Tambakis, 2009. "Feedback trading and intermittent market turbulence," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 477-489.
    8. Antony Jackson & Daniel Ladley, 2013. "Market Ecologies: The Interaction and Profitability of Technical Trading Strategies," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/02, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    9. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Currency manipulation and currency wars: Analyzing the dynamics of competitive central bank interventions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
    11. Fausto Cavalli & Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2015. "Effects of Size, Composition, and Evolutionary Pressure in Heterogeneous Cournot Oligopolies with Best Response Decisional Mechanisms," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2015, pages 1-17, May.
    12. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
    13. He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1577-1596, September.
    14. Athanasiou, George & Kotsios, Stelios, 2008. "An algorithmic approach to exchange rate stabilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1246-1260, November.
    15. Markus Demary, 2011. "Transaction taxes, greed and risk aversion in an agent-based financial market model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, May.
    16. Anna Agliari & Ahmad Naimzada & Nicolò Pecora, 2017. "Nonlinear monetary policy rules in a pure exchange overlapping generations model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1181-1203, November.
    17. Erika Corona & Sabrina Ecca & Michele Marchesi & Alessio Setzu, 2008. "The Interplay Between Two Stock Markets and a Related Foreign Exchange Market: A Simulation Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 99-119, September.
    18. Mauricio Lopera Castano & Ramón Javier Mesa Callejas & Sergio Iván Restrepo Ochoa & Charle Augusto Londono Henao, 2013. "Modelando el esquema de intervenciones del tipo de cambio para Colombia. una aplicación empírica de la técnica de regresión del cuantil bajo redes neu," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, May.
    19. Demary, Markus, 2010. "Transaction taxes and traders with heterogeneous investment horizons in an agent-based financial market model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-44.
    20. Akhmet, Marat & Akhmetova, Zhanar & Fen, Mehmet Onur, 2014. "Chaos in economic models with exogenous shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 95-108.
    21. Youssef, Manel & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Modeling the relationship between oil and USD exchange rates: Evidence from a regime-switching-quantile regression approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate dynamics; central bank interventions; chaos control; technical and fundamental trading rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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