IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v58y2005i1p117-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate dynamics, central bank interventions and chaos control methods

Author

Listed:
  • Wieland, Cristian
  • Westerhoff, Frank H.

Abstract

We use a simple chartist-fundamentalist model developed by Day and Huang to explore recent chaos control algorithms as potential candidates for central bank intervention rules. We find that methods such as delayed feedback control, OGY and constant feedback have, in principle, the potential to reduce exchange rate variability and deviations from fundamentals even in the presence of large dynamic noise.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Wieland, Cristian & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Exchange rate dynamics, central bank interventions and chaos control methods," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 117-132, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:58:y:2005:i:1:p:117-132
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-2681(04)00161-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    2. Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990. "Bulls, bears and market sheep," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
    3. Smith, Vernon L, 1985. "Experimental Economics: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 264-272, March.
    4. Cecilia Chaing & Lindsay McSweeney, 2010. "A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice," CPI Journal, Competition Policy International, vol. 6.
    5. Scheinkman, Jose A & LeBaron, Blake, 1989. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 311-337, July.
    6. Westerhoff, Frank H., 2004. "Multiasset Market Dynamics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(05), pages 596-616, November.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
    8. Christopher J. Neely, 2001. "The practice of central bank intervention: looking under the hood," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 1-10.
    9. C. H. Hommes, 2001. "Financial markets as nonlinear adaptive evolutionary systems," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 149-167.
    10. Kaas, Leo, 1998. "Stabilizing chaos in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 313-332, January.
    11. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
    12. LeBaron, Blake, 1999. "Technical trading rule profitability and foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 125-143, October.
    13. Barnett, William A. & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Martingales, nonlinearity, and chaos," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 703-724, June.
    14. Dominguez, Kathryn M. E., 2003. "The market microstructure of central bank intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 25-45.
    15. Rosser, J. Jr. & Ahmed, Ehsan & Hartmann, Georg C., 2003. "Volatility via social flaring," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 77-87, January.
    16. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    17. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    18. Holyst, Janusz A & Hagel, Tilo & Haag, Gunter & Weidlich, Wolfgang, 1996. "How to Control a Chaotic Economy?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 31-42, February.
    19. Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004. "The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
    20. repec:rus:hseeco:21608 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
    22. Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, "undated". "Volatility Clustering in Financial Markets: A Micro-Simulation of Interacting Agents," Discussion Paper Serie B 437, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
    23. Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-449, June.
    24. Paul Grauwe & Hans Dewachter, 1993. "A chaotic model of the exchange rate: The role of fundamentalists and chartists," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 351-379, December.
    25. Anna Schwartz, 2000. "The Rise and Fall of Foreign Exchange Market Intervention as a Policy Tool," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 18(2), pages 319-339, December.
    26. Menkhoff, Lukas, 1997. "Examining the Use of Technical Currency Analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 307-318, October.
    27. Saacke, Peter, 2002. "Technical analysis and the effectiveness of central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 459-479, August.
    28. Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
    29. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2002. "Speculative behaviour and complex asset price dynamics: a global analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 173-197, October.
    30. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    31. Michael Kopel, 1997. "Improving the performance of an economic system: Controlling chaos," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 269-289.
    32. Bala, Venkatesh & Majumdar, Mukul & Mitra, Tapan, 1998. "A note on controlling a chaotic tatonnement," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(3-4), pages 411-420, January.
    33. Gu, Mu, 1995. "Market mediating behavior: An economic analysis of the security exchange specialists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 237-256, July.
    34. Gu, M., 1993. "An Empirical Examination of the Deterministic Component in Stock price Volatility," Papers 9308, Southern California - Department of Economics.
    35. Gu, Mu, 1993. "An empirical examination of the deterministic component in stock price volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 239-252, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hermsen, Oliver & Witte, Björn-Christopher & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Disclosure requirements, the release of new information and market efficiency: new insights from agent-based models," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-26.
    2. Westerhoff Frank H., 2008. "The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(2-3), pages 195-227, April.
    3. Jackson, Antony & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Market ecologies: The effect of information on the interaction and profitability of technical trading strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 270-280.
    4. Demosthenes Tambakis, 2009. "Feedback trading and intermittent market turbulence," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 477-489.
    5. Antony Jackson & Daniel Ladley, 2013. "Market Ecologies: The Interaction and Profitability of Technical Trading Strategies," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/02, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    6. Stefan Reitz & Frank Westerhoff, 2004. "Target Zone Interventions and Coordination of Expectations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 11, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
    8. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
    9. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
    10. He, Xue-Zhong & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2005. "Commodity markets, price limiters and speculative price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1577-1596, September.
    11. Athanasiou, George & Kotsios, Stelios, 2008. "An algorithmic approach to exchange rate stabilization," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1246-1260, November.
    12. Markus Demary, 2011. "Transaction taxes, greed and risk aversion in an agent-based financial market model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, May.
    13. repec:spr:joevec:v:27:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s00191-017-0522-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Erika Corona & Sabrina Ecca & Michele Marchesi & Alessio Setzu, 2008. "The Interplay Between Two Stock Markets and a Related Foreign Exchange Market: A Simulation Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 99-119, September.
    15. Mauricio Lopera Castaño & Ramón Javier Mesa Callejas & Sergio Iván Restrepo Ochoa & Charle Augusto Londoño Henao, 2013. "Modelando el esquema de intervenciones del tipo de cambio para Colombia. una aplicación empírica de la técnica de regresión del cuantil bajo redes neu," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID, May.
    16. Demary, Markus, 2010. "Transaction taxes and traders with heterogeneous investment horizons in an agent-based financial market model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 4, pages 1-44.
    17. Akhmet, Marat & Akhmetova, Zhanar & Fen, Mehmet Onur, 2014. "Chaos in economic models with exogenous shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 95-108.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:58:y:2005:i:1:p:117-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.