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Socioeconomic interaction and swings in business confidence indicators

Author

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  • Hohnisch, Martin
  • Pittnauer, Sabine
  • Solomon, Sorin
  • Stauffer, Dietrich

Abstract

We propose a stochastic model of interactive formation of individual expectations regarding the business climate in an industry. Our model is motivated by a business climate survey conducted since 1960 in Germany by the Ifo-institute (www.ifo.de). In accordance with the data structure of this survey, in our model there is associated to each economic agent (business manager) a random variable with a three-element state space representing her possible types of expectations. The evolution of individual expectations in a finite population is then modeled as a spatio-temporal stochastic process with local interaction between agents. An appropriate structure of the interaction between agents in our setting turns out to be provided by a Festinger function (in physics called energy function or Hamiltonian) of the Blume–Capel type. Time series of the fractions of agents holding each type of expectations are obtained for the model by Monte Carlo simulations. We find that our model reproduces some generic features of the empirical time series obtained from the German business-climate data, in particular the occurrence of abrupt large but rare swings. In our model, such swings occur as spontaneous phase changes between macroscopic states.

Suggested Citation

  • Hohnisch, Martin & Pittnauer, Sabine & Solomon, Sorin & Stauffer, Dietrich, 2005. "Socioeconomic interaction and swings in business confidence indicators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 646-656.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:345:y:2005:i:3:p:646-656
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.07.016
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zaklan, Georg & Lima, F.W.S. & Westerhoff, Frank, 2008. "Controlling tax evasion fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(23), pages 5857-5861.
    2. Frank Westerhoff & Martin Hohnisch, 2010. "Consumer sentiment and countercyclical fiscal policies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 609-618.
    3. Solomon Sorin & Golo Natasa, 2013. "Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and Marshall–Walras Disequilibrium," Accounting, Economics, and Law: A Convivium, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 167-260, October.
    4. Marcel Ausloos, 2014. "A biased view of a few possible components when reflecting on the present decade financial and economic crisis," Papers 1412.0127, arXiv.org.
    5. Shi, Yong & Tang, Ye-ran & Long, Wen, 2019. "Sentiment contagion analysis of interacting investors: Evidence from China’s stock forum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 246-259.
    6. Stolzenburg, Ulrich & Lux, Thomas, 2010. "Identification of a core-periphery structure among participants of a business climate survey," Kiel Working Papers 1659, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges," Papers 1209.0453, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2012.
    8. Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "European Data Watch: Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 307-319.
    9. Azza Bejaoui & Wajdi Frikha & Ahmed Jeribi, 2023. "On the dynamic connectedness between the G7 stock market indices and different asset classes: Fresh insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(11), pages 1-21, November.
    10. Westerhoff Frank H., 2006. "Nonlinear Expectation Formation, Endogenous Business Cycles and Stylized Facts," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, December.

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