IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and Marshall–Walras Disequilibrium

  • Solomon Sorin

    ()

  • Golo Natasa

    ()

    (Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel)

We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top–down, bottom–up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms; contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions propagating across these links. The global parameter in the top–bottom – bottom–up feedback loop is the interest rate. Before the Minsky Moment, in the “Minsky loans accelerator” stage the relevant “bottom” parameter representing the individual firms’ micro-states is the quantity of loans. After the Minsky Moment, in the “Minsky crisis accelerator” stage, the relevant “bottom” parameters are the number of ponzi units/quantity of failures/defaults. We represent the top–bottom, bottom–up interactions on a plot similar to the Marshall–Walras diagram for quantity-price market equilibrium (where the interest rate is the analog of the price). The Minsky instability is then simply emerging as a consequence of the fixed point (the intersection of the supply and demand curves) being unstable (repulsive). In the presence of network effects, one obtains more than one fixed point and a few dynamic regimes (phases). We describe them and their implications for understanding, predicting and steering economic instability.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/ael.2013.3.issue-3/ael-2013-0029/ael-2013-0029.xml?format=INT
Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Accounting, Economics, and Law.

Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 167-260

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bpj:aelcon:v:3:y:2013:i:3:p:167-260:n:4
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.degruyter.com

Order Information: Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/ael

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Yoram Louzoun & Sorin Solomon, 2002. "Power Law Volatility Auto-Correlations in Stochastic Logistic Systems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 202, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  4. G. Yaari & D. Stauffer & S. Solomon, 2008. "Intermittency and Localization," Papers 0802.3541, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike, 2006. "Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: Is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?," Papers physics/0602015, arXiv.org.
  7. Klass, Oren S. & Biham, Ofer & Levy, Moshe & Malcai, Ofer & Solomon, Sorin, 2006. "The Forbes 400 and the Pareto wealth distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 290-295, February.
  8. Solomon, Sorin & Weisbuch, Gerard & de Arcangelis, Lucilla & Jan, Naeem & Stauffer, Dietrich, 2000. "Social percolation models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 239-247.
  9. Gur Yaari & Andrzej Nowak & Kamil Rakocy & Sorin Solomon, 2008. "Microscopic Study Reveals the Singular Origins of Growth," Papers 0803.2201, arXiv.org.
  10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
  11. Jeremy C. Stein, 2011. "Monetary Policy as Financial-Stability Regulation," NBER Working Papers 16883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  13. Robert M. Solow, 2007. "The last 50 years in growth theory and the next 10," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 3-14, Spring.
  14. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  15. Goldenberg, J & Libai, B & Solomon, S & Jan, N & Stauffer, D, 2000. "Marketing percolation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 335-347.
  16. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's "Financial Instability Hypothesis"," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
  17. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
  18. L. Randall Wray, 2011. "Minsky's Money Manager Capitalism and the Global Financial Crisis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_661, Levy Economics Institute.
  19. Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
  20. Levy, Moshe & Levy, Haim & Solomon, Sorin, 1994. "A microscopic model of the stock market : Cycles, booms, and crashes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 103-111, May.
  21. Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.
  22. Martin Hohnisch & Sabine Pittnauer & Dietrich Stauffer, 2008. "A percolation-based model explaining delayed takeoff in new-product diffusion," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 1001-1017, October.
  23. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "The Changing Nature of Financial Intermediation and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 603-618, 09.
  24. Cantono Simona, 2012. "A percolation model of multi-technology diffusion: information feedbacks, learning economies and subsidy policy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201205, University of Turin.
  25. repec:dgr:tuecis:wpaper:1302 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:aelcon:v:3:y:2013:i:3:p:167-260:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.