Minsky Financial Instability, Interscale Feedback, Percolation and Marshall-Walras Disequilibrium
We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and percolation phase transitions propagating across these links. The global parameter in the top-bottom, bottom-up feedback loop is the interest rate. Before the Minsky moment, in the Minsky Loans Accelerator stage, the relevant bottom parameter representing the individual firms micro-states is the quantity of loans. After the Minsky moment, in the Minsky Crisis Accelerator stage, the relevant bottom parameters are the number of ponzi units / quantity of failures, defaults. We represent the top-bottom, bottom-up interactions on a plot similar to the Marshal-Walras diagram for quantity-price market equilibrium (where the interest rate is the analog of the price). The Minsky instability is then simply emerging as a consequence of the fixed point (the intersection of the supply and demand curves) being unstable (repulsive). In the presence of network effects, one obtains more than one fixed point and a few dynamic regimes (phases). We describe them and their implications for understanding, predicting and steering economic instability.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in Accounting, Economics and Law. Volume 3, Issue 3, Pages 167-260, 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://arxiv.org/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014.
"Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
NBER Working Papers
15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
- Stanley C. Hollander & Kathleen M. Rassuli (ed.), 1993. "Marketing," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 512.
- Yuri Biondi, 2005. "The firm as an Entity: Management, Organization, Accounting," Post-Print halshs-00203036, HAL.
- Jeremy C. Stein, 2011. "Monetary Policy as Financial-Stability Regulation," NBER Working Papers 16883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steve Keen, 2011. "Debunking Macroeconomics," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 147-168, December.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Yoram Louzoun & Sorin Solomon, 2002. "Power Law Volatility Auto-Correlations in Stochastic Logistic Systems," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 202, Society for Computational Economics.
- Solomon, Sorin & Weisbuch, Gerard & de Arcangelis, Lucilla & Jan, Naeem & Stauffer, Dietrich, 2000. "Social percolation models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 277(1), pages 239-247.
- Alberto F. Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2009.
"Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes Versus Spending,"
NBER Working Papers
15438, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cantono Simona, 2012. "A percolation model of multi-technology diffusion: information feedbacks, learning economies and subsidy policy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201205, University of Turin.
- Martin Hohnisch & Sabine Pittnauer & Dietrich Stauffer, 2008. "A percolation-based model explaining delayed takeoff in new-product diffusion," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(5), pages 1001-1017, October.
- L. Randall Wray, 2011.
"Minsky's Money Manager Capitalism and the Global Financial Crisis,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
wp_661, Levy Economics Institute.
- L. Randall Wray, 2011. "Minsky's Money Manager Capitalism and the Global Financial Crisis," International Journal of Political Economy, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(2), pages 5-20, July.
- Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's "Financial Instability Hypothesis"," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
- Yuri Biondi, 2008. "Schumpeter's Economic Theory and the Dynamic Accounting View of the Firm: Neglected Pages from the Theory of Economic Development," Post-Print hal-00406238, HAL.
- Goldenberg, J & Libai, B & Solomon, S & Jan, N & Stauffer, D, 2000. "Marketing percolation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 335-347.
- Tobias Adrian & Nina Boyarchenko, 2012.
"Intermediary Leverage Cycles and Financial Stability,"
2012-010, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
- Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina, 2012. "Intermediary leverage cycles and financial stability," Staff Reports 567, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2015.
- Gur Yaari & Andrzej Nowak & Kamil Rakocy & Sorin Solomon, 2008. "Microscopic Study Reveals the Singular Origins of Growth," Papers 0803.2201, arXiv.org.
- Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "The Changing Nature of Financial Intermediation and the Financial Crisis of 2007–2009," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 603-618, 09.
- George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
- Stefano Battiston & Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2009.
"Liaisons Dangereuses: Increasing Connectivity, Risk Sharing, and Systemic Risk,"
NBER Working Papers
15611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Battiston, Stefano & Delli Gatti, Domenico & Gallegati, Mauro & Greenwald, Bruce & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2012. "Liaisons dangereuses: Increasing connectivity, risk sharing, and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1121-1141.
- J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike, 2006.
"Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 107-112.
- J. Doyne Farmer & Austin Gerig & Fabrizio Lillo & Szabolcs Mike, 2006. "Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: Is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?," Papers physics/0602015, arXiv.org.
- Klass, Oren S. & Biham, Ofer & Levy, Moshe & Malcai, Ofer & Solomon, Sorin, 2006. "The Forbes 400 and the Pareto wealth distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 290-295, February.
- G. Yaari & D. Stauffer & S. Solomon, 2008. "Intermittency and Localization," Papers 0802.3541, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2008.
- George A. Akerlof & Robert J. Shiller, 2010. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9163, 06-2016.
- Yaari, Gur & Solomon, Sorin & Deissenberg, Christophe, 2006. "Advertising, Negative Word-of-Mouth, and Product Acceptance," European Journal of Economic and Social Systems, Lavoisier, vol. 19(2), pages 257-268.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Paolo Zeppini & Koen Frenken & Luis R. Izquierdo, 2013. "Innovation diffusion in networks: the microeconomics of percolation," Working Papers 13-02, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies, revised Feb 2013.
- Biondi, Yuri & Giannoccolo, Pierpaolo & Galam, Serge, 2012. "Formation of share market prices under heterogeneous beliefs and common knowledge," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5532-5545.
- Levy, Moshe & Levy, Haim & Solomon, Sorin, 1994. "A microscopic model of the stock market : Cycles, booms, and crashes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 103-111, May.
- Robert M. Solow, 2007. "The last 50 years in growth theory and the next 10," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 3-14, Spring.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1402.0176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.