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Sentiment contagion analysis of interacting investors: Evidence from China’s stock forum

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  • Shi, Yong
  • Tang, Ye-ran
  • Long, Wen

Abstract

This paper uses an agent-based model to study the sentiment contagion of interacting investors in China. We use text mining techniques to identify investor sentiment in stock forum, and then estimate the parameters of the sentiment contagion model to analyze sentiment formation from individual perspective. The empirical results suggest that the intensities of sentiment contagion in the periods of rising and falling are higher than that of the storming period. Intensities of sentiment contagion in emerging industries are higher than basic industries. A favorable macroeconomic environment will promote investors’ optimism of the stock market, and high degree of investors’ attention and discussions will accelerate contagion of such optimism. Once the stock market tends to be overheated, it may cause investors to worry about the market bubble, which will restrain further rise of investor sentiment.

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  • Shi, Yong & Tang, Ye-ran & Long, Wen, 2019. "Sentiment contagion analysis of interacting investors: Evidence from China’s stock forum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 246-259.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:523:y:2019:i:c:p:246-259
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2019.02.025
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    4. Zhao, Ruwei, 2020. "Quantifying the cross sectional relation of daily happiness sentiment and stock return: Evidence from US," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
    5. Thiago Christiano Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak & Idamar Magalhães Ferreira, 2019. "Modeling Investor Behavior Using Machine Learning: Mean-Reversion and Momentum Trading Strategies," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-14, December.
    6. Gao, Zhenbin & Zhang, Jie, 2023. "The fluctuation correlation between investor sentiment and stock index using VMD-LSTM: Evidence from China stock market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
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    8. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Zhang, Xuetong & Zhang, Weiguo, 2023. "Information asymmetry, sentiment interactions, and asset price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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