Heterogeneous expectations and strong uncertainty in a Minskyian model of financial fluctuations
We examine the role of expectations in a model aimed to explain financial fluctuations. The model restates the core of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, focusing on the role of expectations. The hypotheses concerning the process of formation and revision of expectations are discussed in light of Keynes’s epistemological view of the behaviour of boundedly rational agents under conditions of strong uncertainty. These hypotheses are formalized by drawing on recent advances in complex dynamics, decision theory and behavioural economics. We show that widespread use of extrapolative expectations by economic agents produces a high degree of financial instability that may lead to a serious financial crisis, and that the use by economic agents of a mix of extrapolative and regressive expectations reduces the dynamical instability of the model but may give rise to complex dynamics.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Piazza San Francesco 7, 53100 Siena|
Web page: http://www.depfid.unisi.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004.
"The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
- Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Westerhoff Frank H., 2006. "Nonlinear Expectation Formation, Endogenous Business Cycles and Stylized Facts," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-17, December.
- Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
- Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & He, Xue-Zhong, 2007.
"Heterogeneous expectations and speculative behavior in a dynamic multi-asset framework,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 408-427, March.
- Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2005. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Speculative Behaviour in a Dynamic Multi-Asset Framework," Research Paper Series 166, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Frank Westerhoff, 2006. "Samuelson's multiplier-accelerator model revisited," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 89-92.
- Takatoshi Ito, 1988.
"Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data,"
NBER Working Papers
2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ito, Takatoshi, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
- Lines, Marji & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Inflation expectations and macroeconomic dynamics: The case of rational versus extrapolative expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 246-257, February.
- Levin, Jay H, 1997. "Chartists, Fundamentalists and Exchange Rate Dynamics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 281-90, October.
- Reitz, Stefan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2003.
"Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2003/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Westerhoff Frank H. & Reitz Stefan, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
- Frank H. Westerhoff, 2006. "Business Cycles, Heuristic Expectation Formation, and Contracyclical Policies," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 8(5), pages 821-838, December.
- Frank H. Westerhoff, 2008. "Heuristic Expectation Formation And Business Cycles: A Simple Linear Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 47-56, 02.
- repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
- Alessandro Vercelli, 2011. "A Perspective on Minsky Moments: Revisiting the Core of the Financial Instability Hypothesis," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 49-67.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- Vercelli, Alessandro, 2000. "Structural financial instability and cyclical fluctuations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 139-156, July.
- Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2006. "Financial fragility and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 543-561, December.
- Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988.
"Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep,"
m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usi:depfid:1010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carlo Zappia)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.