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Structural contagion and vulnerability to unexpected liquidity shortfalls


  • Giansante, Simone
  • Chiarella, Carl
  • Sordi, Serena
  • Vercelli, Alessandro


This paper assumes that financial fluctuations are the result of the dynamic interaction between liquidity and solvency conditions of individual economic units. The framework is an extention of Sordi and Vercelli (2012) designed as an heterogeneous agent model which proceeds through discrete time steps within a finite time horizon. The interaction at the micro-level between economic units monitors the spread of contagion and systemic risk, producing interesting complex dynamics. The model is analysed by means of numerical simulations and systemic risk modelling, where local interaction of units is captured and analysed by the bilateral provision of liquidity among units. The behaviour and evolution of economic units are studied for different parameter regimes in order to investigate the relation between units’ expectations, liquidity regimes and contagion. Liquidity policy implications are briefly discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Giansante, Simone & Chiarella, Carl & Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2012. "Structural contagion and vulnerability to unexpected liquidity shortfalls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 558-569.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:83:y:2012:i:3:p:558-569
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2012.05.014

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Krause, Andreas & Giansante, Simone, 2012. "Interbank lending and the spread of bank failures: A network model of systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 583-608.
    2. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    3. Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2012. "Heterogeneous expectations and strong uncertainty in a Minskyian model of financial fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 544-557.
    4. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
    5. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2000. "Financial Contagion," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(1), pages 1-33, February.
    6. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Liquidity Shortages and Banking Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 615-647, April.
    7. Iori, Giulia & De Masi, Giulia & Precup, Ovidiu Vasile & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Caldarelli, Guido, 2008. "A network analysis of the Italian overnight money market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 259-278, January.
    8. Markose, Sheri & Giansante, Simone & Shaghaghi, Ali Rais, 2012. "‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 627-646.
    9. Vercelli, Alessandro, 2000. "Structural financial instability and cyclical fluctuations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 139-156, July.
    10. Sébastien Vivier-Lirimont, 2004. "Interbanking networks : towards a small financial world ?," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques v04046, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    11. Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2006. "Financial fragility and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 543-561, December.
    12. Alessandro Vercelli, 2011. "A Perspective on Minsky Moments: Revisiting the Core of the Financial Instability Hypothesis," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 49-67.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giampaolo Gabbi & Alesia Kalbaska & Alessandro Vercelli, 2014. "Factors generating and transmitting the financial crisis: The role of incentives: securitization and contagion," Working papers wpaper56, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    2. Passarella, Marco, 2011. "From the village fair to Wall Street. The Italian reception of Minsky’s economic thought," MPRA Paper 49593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bargigli, Leonardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Riccetti, Luca & Russo, Alberto, 2014. "Network analysis and calibration of the “leveraged network-based financial accelerator”," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 109-125.
    4. Klimek, Peter & Poledna, Sebastian & Doyne Farmer, J. & Thurner, Stefan, 2015. "To bail-out or to bail-in? Answers from an agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 144-154.
    5. Marco Valerio Geraci & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2015. "Measuring interconnectedness between financial institutions with Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressions," Working Papers ECARES 2015-51, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Marco Valerio Geraci & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2015. "Measuring Interconnectedness between Financial Institutions with Bayesian Time-Varying VARS," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2015-51, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

    More about this item


    Financial fluctuations; Contagion; Systemic risk; Heterogeneous agents; Complex dynamics;

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies


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