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Inventory growth cycles with debt-financed investment

Author

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  • Matheus Grasselli

    (LAMETA, CREST)

  • Adrien Nguyen-Huu

    (LAMETA, CREST)

Abstract

We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired level of inventories. On the demand side, investment is determined as a function of utilization and profitability and can be financed by debt, whereas consumption is independently determined as a function of income and wealth. Prices adjust sluggishly to both changes in labour costs and inventory. Disequilibrium between expected sales and demand is absorbed by unplanned changes in inventory. This results in a five-dimensional dynamical system for wage share, employment rate, private debt ratio, expected sales, and capacity utilization. We analyze two limiting cases: the long-run dynamics provides a version of the Keen model with effective demand and varying inventories, whereas the short-run dynamics gives rise to behaviour that we interpret as Kitchin cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Matheus Grasselli & Adrien Nguyen-Huu, 2016. "Inventory growth cycles with debt-financed investment," Papers 1610.00955, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1610.00955
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    1. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
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    4. Matheus R. Grasselli & Adrien Nguyen Huu, 2015. "Inflation and Speculation in a Dynamic Macroeconomic Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-26, July.
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    7. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2014. "What inventories tell us about aggregate fluctuations—A tractable approach to (S,s) policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 196-217.
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    Cited by:

    1. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Coupling cycle mechanisms: Minsky debt cycles and the multiplier-accelerator," Working Papers PKWP1904, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    2. Nguyen-Huu, Adrien & Pottier, Antonin, 2020. "Hicksian traverse revisited: Conditions for the energy transition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 102-111.
    3. Emmanuel Bovari & Gaël Giraud & Florent McIsaac, 2018. "Carbon Pricing and Global Warming: A Stock-flow Consistent Macro-dynamic Approach," Working Paper 0a6be926-7c78-4aba-a60b-6, Agence française de développement.
    4. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Moreira, Helmar Nunes, 2019. "Some new insights on the empirics of Goodwin's growth-cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 42-54.
    5. Giraud, Gaël & Grasselli, Matheus, 2021. "Household debt: The missing link between inequality and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 901-927.
    6. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Capital and inventory investments under quantity constraints: A microfounded Metzlerian model," MPRA Paper 111906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jacobo, Juan, 2022. "A multi time-scale theory of economic growth and cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 143-155.
    8. Bovari, Emmanuel & Giraud, Gaël & Mc Isaac, Florent, 2018. "Coping With Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macrodynamics of Global Warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 383-398.
    9. 'Eric Herbert & and Gael Giraud & Aur'elie Louis-Napol'eon & Christophe Goupil, 2022. "Macroeconomic Dynamics in a finite world: the Thermodynamic Potential Approach," Papers 2204.02038, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    10. Matheus R Grasselli & Alexander Lipton, 2018. "The Broad Consequences of Narrow Banking," Papers 1810.05689, arXiv.org.
    11. Matheus R. Grasselli & Alexander Lipton, 2019. "The Broad Consequences Of Narrow Banking," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-22, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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