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House price cycles, housing systems, and growth models

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  • Kohler, Karsten
  • Tippet, Ben
  • Stockhammer, Engelbert

Abstract

The paper provides a framework for theorising the role of house price cycles in national growth models. We synthesise Minskyan approaches with comparative political economy (CPE) by arguing that institutions influence the extent to which countries experience what we call 'house price-driven growth models'. First, we argue that house price dynamics have been undertheorized in existing growth models analysis. Finance-led models can be properly understood only against the background of rising house prices that stimulate consumption through wealth effects and investment through construction. Second, we identify behavioural and Minskyan theories of housing cycles as suitable frameworks to theorise the impact of housing on growth. However, this literature does not provide an analysis of cross-country differences in housing cycles. Third, drawing on the CPE literature on housing systems, we argue that institutions such as homeownership rates and mortgage-credit encouraging institutions can explain differences in the intensity of housing cycles. We provide preliminary empirical support for this framework from a cross-country analysis. Our results show strong cross-country heterogeneity in the intensity of housing cycles. Countries with more intense house price cycles also tend to exhibit more volatile business and debt cycles. Homeownership rates and mortgage-credit encouraging institutions are positively correlated with the volatility of house price cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Kohler, Karsten & Tippet, Ben & Stockhammer, Engelbert, 2022. "House price cycles, housing systems, and growth models," IPE Working Papers 194/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ipewps:1942022
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    1. Mark Setterfield & Y.K. Kim, 2024. "How financially fragile can households become? Household borrowing, the welfare state, and macroeconomic resilience," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 121-151, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Post-Keynesian Economics; Comparative Political Economy; growth models; housing; house price cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • B52 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Modern Monetary Theory;

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