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Macroeconomic effects of household debt: an empirical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yun K. Kim

    (Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Boston, MA, USA)

Abstract

Multi-equation econometric frameworks are used to investigate the impact of household debt on GDP in the US. In the vector autoregression analysis capturing the transitory feedback effects, we observe a bidirectional positive feedback process between aggregate income and debt. According to the estimation of vector error correction models, there are negative long-run relationships between household debt and output. These empirical results provide a support for the view of the debt-driven business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Yun K. Kim, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of household debt: an empirical analysis," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 127-150, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:elg:rokejn:v:4:y:2016:i:2:p127-150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan G. Isaac & Yun K. Kim, 2013. "Consumer and Corporate Debt: A Neo- K aleckian Synthesis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(2), pages 244-271, May.
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    3. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1978. "The Household Balance Sheet and the Great Depression," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(04), pages 918-937, December.
    4. Yun K. Kim & Mark Setterfield & Yuan Mei, 2014. "A theory of aggregate consumption," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 31-49, April.
    5. Hiroshi Nishi, 2012. "Household Debt, Dynamic Stability, and Change in Demand Creation Patterns," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 607-622, October.
    6. Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2015. "Conspicuous Consumption, Inequality and Debt: The Nature of Consumption-driven Profit-led Regimes," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(1), pages 51-70, February.
    7. Cynamon Barry Z. & Fazzari Steven M., 2008. "Household Debt in the Consumer Age: Source of Growth--Risk of Collapse," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-32, October.
    8. Eckhard Hein, 2012. "Finance-dominated capitalism, re-distribution, household debt and financial fragility in a Kaleckian distribution and growth model," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 65(260), pages 11-51.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2016. "A Minskyan criticism on the shareholder pressure approach of financialisation," Discussion Papers 53, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    2. Dögüs, Ilhan, 2017. "Rising wage dispersion between white-collar and blue-collar workers and market concentration: The case of the USA, 1966-2011," Discussion Papers 62, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    3. repec:ove:journl:aid:12373 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hein, Eckhard, 2017. "Financialisation and tendencies towards stagnation: The role of macroeconomic regime changes in the course of and after the financial and economic crisis 2007-9," IPE Working Papers 90/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    5. Dünhaupt, Petra & Hein, Eckhard, 2018. "Financialisation, distribution & the macroeconomic regimes before & after the crisis: A post-Keynesian view on Denmark, Estonia & Latvia," IPE Working Papers 104/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    6. repec:elg:ejeepi:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p131-172 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hein, Eckhard, 2018. "Inequality and growth: Marxian and post-Keynesian/Kaleckian perspectives on distribution and growth regimes before and after the Great Recession," IPE Working Papers 96/2018, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    8. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    household debt; business cycles; financial instability hypothesis; cointegration; VAR; VECM;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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