IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v321y2025ics0360544225011363.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting oil and tanker shipping markets: The role of geopolitical risk in shaping spillover dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Shuiyang
  • Hao, Siting
  • Meng, Bin
  • Zhang, Yajing
  • Kuang, Haibo

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between the crude oil and tanker shipping markets under geopolitical risk shocks, focusing on the differential impacts of threat-based and action-based geopolitical risks, as well as supply-demand disruptions. We employ the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model to capture spillover dynamics and their variations before and after geopolitical shocks, while the TVP-SV-VAR model provides a novel approach to visualize the intensity, direction, and duration of the effects of geopolitical risks over time. Our findings contribute to the understanding of altered market interactions under geopolitical risks by distinguishing between threat-based and action-based shocks, as well as analyzing the asymmetric impacts of supply-side and demand-side disruptions. Specifically, geopolitical risk is found to significantly amplify volatility spillovers from the BDTI to the crude oil market (+6.91 %), while reducing the reverse spillover (−14.92 %). Threat-based risks enhance bidirectional spillovers between crude oil and BCTI, while action-based risks dampen these spillovers. Furthermore, action-based risks have a more persistent effect, whereas threat-based risks induce a stronger, short-term response. Geopolitical risks impact correlations and hedge ratios, affecting diversification and portfolio allocation. These results emphasize the need to differentiate geopolitical risks, offering insights for energy policy, shipping resource allocation, and cross-market risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Shuiyang & Hao, Siting & Meng, Bin & Zhang, Yajing & Kuang, Haibo, 2025. "Revisiting oil and tanker shipping markets: The role of geopolitical risk in shaping spillover dynamics," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:321:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225011363
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135494
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225011363
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.135494?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ki-Hong Choi & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Asymmetric Dependence between Oil Prices and Maritime Freight Rates: A Time-Varying Copula Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Fan Yu, 2008. "Default Risk And Diversification: Theory And Empirical Implications," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 19, pages 455-480, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Meng, Bin & Chen, Shuiyang & Haralambides, Hercules & Kuang, Haibo & Fan, Lidong, 2023. "Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    5. Shi, Wenming & Gong, Yuting & Yin, Jingbo & Nguyen, Son & Liu, Qian, 2022. "Determinants of dynamic dependence between the crude oil and tanker freight markets: A mixed-frequency data sampling copula model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    6. Chen, Shuiyang & Kuang, Haibo & Bin Meng,, 2024. "The dependence structures between geopolitical risks and energy prices: New evidence from regional heterogeneity and quantile-on-quantile perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    7. Kotcharin, Suntichai & Maneenop, Sakkakom, 2020. "Geopolitical risk and corporate cash holdings in the shipping industry," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Chang, Kai & Ge, Fangping & Zhang, Chao & Wang, Weihong, 2018. "The dynamic linkage effect between energy and emissions allowances price for regional emissions trading scheme pilots in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-425.
    9. Wenming Shi & Zhongzhi Yang & Kevin X. Li, 2013. "The impact of crude oil price on the tanker market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 309-322, July.
    10. Bin Meng & Shuiyang Chen & Hercules Haralambides & Haibo Kuang & Lidong Fan, 2023. "Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis," Post-Print hal-04046290, HAL.
    11. Glen, D.R. & Martin, B.T., 2004. "2. A Survey Of The Modelling Of Dry Bulk And Tanker Markets," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 19-64, January.
    12. Zhang, Yi, 2018. "Investigating dependencies among oil price and tanker market variables by copula-based multivariate models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 435-446.
    13. Edwards, Kimberley D., 1996. "Prospect theory: A literature review," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 19-38.
    14. Panos K. Pouliasis & Christos Bentsos, 2024. "Oil price uncertainty and the relation to tanker shipping," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2472-2494, April.
    15. Huang, Jianbai & Ding, Qian & Zhang, Hongwei & Guo, Yaoqi & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2021. "Nonlinear dynamic correlation between geopolitical risk and oil prices: A study based on high-frequency data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    16. Bin Meng & Shuiyang Chen & Haibo Kuang & Hercules Haralambides & Xin Zhang, 2024. "Advances in risk management: optimum investment portfolios in tanker shipping," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(4), pages 572-591, December.
    17. Wang, Shuang & Wallace, Stein W. & Lu, Jing & Gu, Yewen, 2020. "Handling financial risks in crude oil imports: Taking into account crude oil prices as well as country and transportation risks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    18. Monge, Manuel & Romero Rojo, María Fátima & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    19. Angela Poulakidas & Fred Joutz, 2009. "Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 215-233, June.
    20. Yu, Hongchu & Fang, Zhixiang & Lu, Feng & Murray, Alan T. & Zhang, Hengcai & Peng, Peng & Mei, Qiang & Chen, Jinhai, 2019. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on tanker maritime network structure and traffic flow changes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 390-403.
    21. Sun, Xiaolei & Tang, Ling & Yang, Yuying & Wu, Dengsheng & Li, Jianping, 2014. "Identifying the dynamic relationship between tanker freight rates and oil prices: In the perspective of multiscale relevance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 287-295.
    22. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    23. He, Zhifang, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and investor sentiment: Causality and TVP-VAR analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    24. Bin Meng & Shuiyang Chen & Hercules Haralambides & Haibo Kuang & Lidong Fan, 2023. "Information spillovers between carbon emissions trading prices and shipping markets: A time-frequency analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-04046290, HAL.
    25. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    26. Dimitrios Theocharis & Vasco Sanchez Rodrigues & Stephen Pettit & Jane Haider, 2024. "Feasibility and implications of the Northern sea route choice: the role of commodity prices, in-transit inventory, and alternative operational modes for the oil product tanker market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(3), pages 363-391, April.
    27. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    28. Siddiqui, Atiq W. & Basu, Rounaq, 2020. "An empirical analysis of relationships between cyclical components of oil price and tanker freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    29. Wolfgang Drobetz & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Styliani-Iris Krokida & Dimitris Tsouknidis, 2021. "The effects of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on dry bulk shipping freight rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(19), pages 2218-2229, April.
    30. Guo, Peng & Shi, Jing, 2024. "Geopolitical risks, investor sentiment and industry stock market volatility in China: Evidence from a quantile regression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    31. Chen, Feier & Miao, Yuqi & Tian, Kang & Ding, Xiaoxu & Li, Tingyi, 2017. "Multifractal cross-correlations between crude oil and tanker freight rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 474(C), pages 344-354.
    32. Tang, Yumei & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Sarker, Provash Kumer & Baroudi, Sarra, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks and uncertainties on green bond markets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    33. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shi, Wenming & Gong, Yuting & Yin, Jingbo & Nguyen, Son & Liu, Qian, 2022. "Determinants of dynamic dependence between the crude oil and tanker freight markets: A mixed-frequency data sampling copula model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    2. Chen, Shuiyang & Meng, Bin & Qiu, Bingcheng & Kuang, Haibo, 2025. "Dynamic effects of maritime risk on macroeconomic and global maritime economic activity," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 246-263.
    3. Chen, Shuiyang & Kuang, Haibo & Bin Meng,, 2024. "The dependence structures between geopolitical risks and energy prices: New evidence from regional heterogeneity and quantile-on-quantile perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    4. Yi, Qing & Jiang, Yuanying, 2025. "Time-frequency spillovers between carbon, fossil fuels, and clean energy markets: New insights from the TVP-VAR framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    5. Chen, Yanhui & Zhou, Xiaoyu & Chen, Shun & Mi, Jackson Jinhong, 2024. "LNG freight rate and LNG price, carbon price, geopolitical risk: A dynamic connectedness analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    6. Meng, Bin & Wei, Bangguo & Yang, Mo & Kuang, Haibo, 2023. "Measuring the time-frequency spillover effect among carbon markets and shipping energy markets: A global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Volatility connectedness between geopolitical risk and financial markets: Insights from pandemic and military crisis periods," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PC).
    8. Chen, Zhuoyi & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Can geopolitical risks impact the long-run correlation between crude oil and clean energy markets? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    9. Faheem Aslam & Paulo Ferreira & Haider Ali & Ana Ercília José, 2022. "Application of Multifractal Analysis in Estimating the Reaction of Energy Markets to Geopolitical Acts and Threats," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    10. Dong, Xiyong & Zhang, John F., 2024. "Heterogeneity of regional carbon emission markets in China: Evidence from multidimensional determinants," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Ki-Hong Choi & Seong-Min Yoon, 2020. "Asymmetric Dependence between Oil Prices and Maritime Freight Rates: A Time-Varying Copula Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-16, December.
    12. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Zheng, Jinlin & Wen, Baoyu & Jiang, Yaohui & Wang, Xiaohan & Shen, Yue, 2023. "Risk spillovers across geopolitical risk and global financial markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PA).
    14. Bin Meng & Shuiyang Chen & Haibo Kuang & Hercules Haralambides & Xin Zhang, 2024. "Advances in risk management: optimum investment portfolios in tanker shipping," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 26(4), pages 572-591, December.
    15. Chen, Shuiyang & Meng, Bin & Kuang, Haibo, 2025. "High-order moment joint risk spillovers and investment management: Implications for green shipbuilding policy and practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 152-167.
    16. Monge, Manuel & Romero Rojo, María Fátima & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    17. Wang, Kai-Hua & Xiong, De-Ping & Mirza, Nawazish & Shao, Xue-Feng & Yue, Xiao-Guang, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk uncertainty strengthen or depress cash holdings of oil enterprises? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    18. Khan, Khalid & Su, Chi Wei & Koseoglu, Sinem Derindere, 2022. "Who are the influencers in the commodity markets during COVID-19?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Huang, Zhuo & Ye, Chengfang & Lai, Fujun & Li, Yunzhong & Li, Xiaofan, 2024. "Dancing between threats and conflicts: How Chinese energy companies invest amidst global geopolitical risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Xia, Mingli & Zhu, Guangfeng, 2024. "The importance of intellectual property: Analyzing the impact of resource efficiency improvements in the mineral sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:321:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225011363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.