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The effect of oil prices on the US shipping stock prices: The mediating role of freight rates and economic indicators

Author

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  • Andrikopoulos, Andreas
  • Merika, Anna
  • Stoupos, Nikolaos

Abstract

We explore the effect of oil prices on shipping stocks and freight rates, delivering evidence that the effect of oil prices on stock prices is mediated by the effect of oil prices on freight rates and, thereof, the effect of freight rates on the stocks of US-listed shipping companies. Our data set runs from 2018 to 2023, and our methodological arsenal includes error correction models, MIDAS and Granger causality. In this context, we discover that after the Covid19 pandemic and during the Russo-Ukrainian war the interactions between oil prices, freight rates and stock prices have been disrupted, turning the effect of freight rates on stock prices from non-causal to causal and the effects of oil prices on freight rates from negative to positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrikopoulos, Andreas & Merika, Anna & Stoupos, Nikolaos, 2025. "The effect of oil prices on the US shipping stock prices: The mediating role of freight rates and economic indicators," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:38:y:2025:i:c:s2405851325000182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100474
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tanker freight rates; Oil prices; Shipping stock prices; MIDAS; ECM; Economic indicators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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