IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/josatr/v9y2024i1d10.1186_s41072-024-00178-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can commodity prices predict stock market returns? The case of dry bulk shipping companies

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantinos D. Melas

    (University of Western Macedonia
    Metropolitan College
    University of Macedonia)

  • Nektarios A. Michail

    (Central Bank of Cyprus
    Cyprus University of Technology
    European Institute of Management and Finance)

Abstract

We explore the relationship between the returns of 45 dry bulk shipping company stock prices and the main 15 commodities that bulk carriers transport. Using a principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of the commodities dataset and a panel methodology, we find that a change in the commodity price principal component would result in a 0.6% change in the returns of the shipping stock prices. Minerals appear to have a stronger impact, as a 1% change in the minerals principal component results in a 1.1% change in the returns. This is mainly due to the fact that minerals account for larger trade volumes in the dry bulk market and they employ mostly bigger vessels, while the price of Brent oil is also an important factor affecting shipping stock prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantinos D. Melas & Nektarios A. Michail, 2024. "Can commodity prices predict stock market returns? The case of dry bulk shipping companies," Journal of Shipping and Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-14, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:josatr:v:9:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1186_s41072-024-00178-9
    DOI: 10.1186/s41072-024-00178-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1186/s41072-024-00178-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1186/s41072-024-00178-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carter, David A. & Rogers, Daniel A. & Simkins, Betty J. & Treanor, Stephen D., 2017. "A review of the literature on commodity risk management," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 1-17.
    2. Wolfgang Drobetz & Dirk Schilling & Lars Tegtmeier, 2010. "Common risk factors in the returns of shipping stocks," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 93-120, March.
    3. Nektarios A. Michail & Christos S. Savva & Demetris Koursaros, 2017. "Size Effects of Fiscal Policy and Business Confidence in the Euro Area," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, November.
    4. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson, 2015. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(1), pages 55-109.
    5. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2007. "Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(2), pages 129-152, Spring.
    6. Angelopoulos, Jason & Sahoo, Satya & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2020. "Commodity and transportation economic market interactions revisited: New evidence from a dynamic factor model," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Manolis G. Kavussanos & Amir H. Alizadeh, 2002. "Efficient pricing of ships in the dry bulk sector of the shipping industry," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 303-330.
    8. Andreas Merikas & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Christos Nounis, 2009. "Global shipping IPOs performance," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 481-505, December.
    9. Hentschel, Ludger & Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Are Corporations Reducing or Taking Risks with Derivatives?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 93-118, March.
    10. Aydin, N. & Lee, H. & Mansouri, S.A., 2017. "Speed optimization and bunkering in liner shipping in the presence of uncertain service times and time windows at ports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 143-154.
    11. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    12. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    13. Wenming Shi & Zhongzhi Yang & Kevin X. Li, 2013. "The impact of crude oil price on the tanker market," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 309-322, July.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    16. Michail Nektarios A. & Melas Konstantinos D., 2022. "Geopolitical Risk and the LNG-LPG Trade," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 28(3), pages 243-265, September.
    17. Ji, Qiang & Bahloul, Walid & Geng, Jiang-Bo & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Trading behaviour connectedness across commodity markets: Evidence from the hedgers’ sentiment perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    18. Yuying Yang & Chang Liu & Xiaolei Sun & Jianping Li, 2015. "Spillover effect of international crude oil market on tanker market," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 38(4/5/6), pages 257-277.
    19. Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee & Yap, Wei Yim, 2011. "Dynamics of liner shipping network and port connectivity in supply chain systems: analysis on East Asia," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1272-1281.
    20. Nektarios A. Michail & Konstantinos D. Melas & Dimitris Batzilis, 2021. "Container shipping trade and real GDP growth: A panel vector autoregressive approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 304-315.
    21. Fan, Lixian & Gu, Bingmei & Yin, Jingbo, 2021. "Investment incentive analysis for second-hand vessels," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 215-225.
    22. James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Measuring Global Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 25778, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    24. Yimiao Gu & Zhenxi Chen & Donald Lien, 2019. "Baltic Dry Index and iron ore spot market: dynamics and interactions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(35), pages 3855-3863, July.
    25. Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2016. "Dynamic volatility spillovers across shipping freight markets," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 90-111.
    26. Kilian, Lutz, 2019. "Measuring global real economic activity: Do recent critiques hold up to scrutiny?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 106-110.
    27. Liu, J & Thomas, J, 2000. "Stock returns and accounting earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 71-101.
    28. Gao, Lin & Süss, Stephan, 2015. "Market sentiment in commodity futures returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 84-103.
    29. Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Panos K. Pouliasis & Ioannis Kyriakou, 2014. "Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1507-1539.
    30. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    31. Brian J. Henderson & Neil D. Pearson & Li Wang, 2015. "Editor's Choice New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(5), pages 1285-1311.
    32. Funashima, Yoshito, 2020. "Global economic activity indexes revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    33. David A. Carter & Daniel A. Rogers & Betty J. Simkins, 2006. "Does Hedging Affect Firm Value? Evidence from the US Airline Industry," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 53-86, March.
    34. Mike Fusillo, 2003. "Excess Capacity and Entry Deterrence: The Case of Ocean Liner Shipping Markets," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 5(2), pages 100-115, June.
    35. Costas TH Grammenos & Angelos G Arkoulis, 2002. "Macroeconomic Factors and International Shipping Stock Returns," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 4(1), pages 81-99, March.
    36. Bernardina Algieri, 2021. "Fast & furious: Do psychological and legal factors affect commodity price volatility?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 980-1017, April.
    37. Eleni N. Giannakopoulou & Eleftherios I. Thalassinos & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2016. "Corporate governance in shipping: an overview," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 19-38, January.
    38. Wolfgang Drobetz & Konstantinos Gavriilidis & Styliani-Iris Krokida & Dimitris Tsouknidis, 2021. "The effects of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on dry bulk shipping freight rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(19), pages 2218-2229, April.
    39. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
    40. Lixian Fan & Meifeng Luo, 2013. "Analyzing ship investment behaviour in liner shipping," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 511-533, November.
    41. Jeongmin Lee & Jinwoo Lee & Changhee Lee & Yulseong Kim, 2023. "Identifying ESG Trends of International Container Shipping Companies Using Semantic Network Analysis and Multiple Case Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-20, June.
    42. Lixian Fan & Jiaqi Xie, 2023. "Identify determinants of container ship size investment choice," Maritime Policy & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(2), pages 219-234, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nektarios A. Michail & Konstantinos D. Melas, 2021. "Sentiment-Augmented Supply and Demand Equations for the Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, November.
    2. Panayiotis Theodossiou & Dimitris Tsouknidis & Christos Savva, 2020. "Freight rates in downside and upside markets: pricing of own and spillover risks from other shipping segments," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 1097-1119, June.
    3. Konstantinos D. Melas & Photis M. Panayides & Dimitris A. Tsouknidis, 2022. "Dynamic volatility spillovers and investor sentiment components across freight-shipping markets," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 24(2), pages 368-394, June.
    4. Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre, 2021. "A comparison of monthly global indicators for forecasting growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1276-1295.
    5. David S. Jacks & Martin Stuermer, 2021. "Dry bulk shipping and the evolution of maritime transport costs, 1850–2020," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 204-227, July.
    6. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kambouroudis, Dimos S. & Tsakou, Katerina & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A., 2018. "Volatility forecasting across tanker freight rates: The role of oil price shocks," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 376-391.
    7. Kilian, Lutz, 2022. "Facts and fiction in oil market modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    8. Wen, Xiaoqian & Xie, Yuxin & Pantelous, Athanasios A., 2022. "Extreme price co-movement of commodity futures and industrial production growth: An empirical evaluation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Pouliasis, Panos K. & Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "Shipping equity risk behavior and portfolio management," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 178-200.
    10. Panos K. Pouliasis & Christos Bentsos, 2024. "Oil price uncertainty and the relation to tanker shipping," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2472-2494, April.
    11. Maitra, Debasish & Chandra, Saurabh & Dash, Saumya Ranjan, 2020. "Liner shipping industry and oil price volatility: Dynamic connectedness and portfolio diversification," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    12. Alexandridis, George & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Kim, Chi Y. & Tsouknidis, Dimitris A. & Visvikis, Ilias D., 2018. "A survey of shipping finance research: Setting the future research agenda," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 164-212.
    13. Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Wang, Jun & Li, Jianping, 2020. "Assessing the extreme risk spillovers of international commodities on maritime markets: A GARCH-Copula-CoVaR approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Giamouzi, Maria & Nomikos, Nikos K, 2021. "Identifying shipowners’ risk attitudes over gains and losses: Evidence from the dry bulk freight market," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    15. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Nomikos, Nikos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2016. "Shipping investor sentiment and international stock return predictability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-94.
    16. Zeina Alsalman, 2023. "Oil price shocks and US unemployment: evidence from disentangling the duration of unemployment spells in the labor market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 479-511, July.
    17. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 828-844, October.
    18. Güntner, Jochen & Öhlinger, Peter, 2022. "Oil price shocks and the hedging benefit of airline investments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    19. Raghavan, Mala, 2020. "An analysis of the global oil market using SVARMA models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    20. Aktham I. Maghyereh & Osama D. Sweidan, 2020. "Do structural shocks in the crude oil market affect biofuel prices?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 164, pages 183-193.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shipping; Dry bulk market; Commodities; Principal component analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:josatr:v:9:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1186_s41072-024-00178-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.