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Container shipping trade and real GDP growth: A panel vector autoregressive approach


  • Nektarios A. Michail

    (Central Bank of Cyprus)

  • Konstantinos D. Melas

    (Metropolitan College)

  • Dimitris Batzilis

    (American College of Greece – Deree, Greece)


By employing a panel vector autoregressive approach, we show that containership trade is an important determinant of GDP growth. Using the full sample of sea-transported container boxes of 135 countries for ten years, we provide evidence that the amount of TEUs transported, both contemporaneously as well as in the previous year, has a significant positive effect on economic growth. This can be explained via the fact that TEUs have a positive effect on trade flows between countries and trade flows have long been shown to have a strong positive impact on real GDP growth.

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  • Nektarios A. Michail & Konstantinos D. Melas & Dimitris Batzilis, 2021. "Container shipping trade and real GDP growth: A panel vector autoregressive approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(2), pages 304-315.
  • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-20-00966

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guangying Jin & Wei Feng & Qingpu Meng, 2022. "Prediction of Waterway Cargo Transportation Volume to Support Maritime Transportation Systems Based on GA-BP Neural Network Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-24, October.
    2. del Rosal, Ignacio & Moura, Ticiana Grecco Zanon, 2022. "The effect of shipping connectivity on seaborne containerised export flows," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 143-151.

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    More about this item


    Containerization; GDP; Panel Vector Autoregressive;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • R4 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics


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