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Oil price uncertainty, global industry returns and active investment strategies

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  • Demirer, Riza
  • Yuksel, Aydin
  • Yuksel, Asli

Abstract

This paper shows that time-varying oil return volatility predicts regime transitions across a majority of global stock sectors, particularly for durables, financials, industrials, oil & gas, telecommunications and utilities. Global stock sectors yield significantly higher returns during periods of low oil market uncertainty and an active, forward-looking investment strategy conditional on the state of oil market volatility yields significantly positive excess returns even after adjusting for systematic risk exposures. The findings show that the predictive information captured by oil market fundamentals can be utilized in active sector rotation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Demirer, Riza & Yuksel, Aydin & Yuksel, Asli, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty, global industry returns and active investment strategies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:22:y:2020:i:c:s1703494920300244
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2020.e00177
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ruble, Isabella & Powell, John, 2021. "The Brent-WTI spread revisited: A novel approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global sector indices; Oil volatility; Markov switching; Predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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