IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2021-87.html

Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman

Author

Listed:
  • Salwa Aljabri
  • Mala Raghavan
  • Joaquin Vespignan

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of oil price shocks on fiscal policy and real GDP in Oman using new unexplored data. We find that an oil price shock explains around 22% and 46% of the variation in the government revenue and GDP, respectively. Decomposing the government revenue and GDP further into petroleum and non-petroleum related components, we find that an oil price shock explains around 26% of the variation in petroleum revenue and 90% of the petroleum-GDP. Though petroleum and non-petroleum GDP respond positively to oil price shocks, government expenditure is not affected by oil prices but is affected by government revenue. The results suggest that the Omani government uses its reserve fund and local and international debt to smooth and reduce the impact of oil price fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Salwa Aljabri & Mala Raghavan & Joaquin Vespignan, 2021. "Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman," CAMA Working Papers 2021-87, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-87
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/2025-08/87_2021_Aljabri_Raghavan_Vespignani.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ben Salem, Leila & Nouira, Ridha & Saafi, Sami & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "How do oil prices affect the GDP and its components? New evidence from a time-varying threshold model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    3. Mingze Marcellus Li & Thanasis Stengos & Yiguo Sun, 2025. "Spatial Nexus: Natural Resources and Economic Growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 1117-1152, September.
    4. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Guloglu, Hasan, 2024. "Macro-financial transmission of global oil shocks to BRIC countries — International financial (uncertainty) conditions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    5. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Karanfil, Fatih, 2023. "Fiscal policy in oil and gas-exporting economies: Good times, bad times and ugly times," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Marzouk, Osama A., 2025. "Wind Speed Weibull Model Identification in Oman, and Computed Normalized Annual Energy Production (NAEP) From Wind Turbines Based on Data From Weather Stations," OSF Preprints 8jvcn_v1, Center for Open Science.
    7. Dumiter Florin Cornel & Nicoară Ștefania Amalia & Nicoară Samuel & Bențe Cristian & Păiușan Luminița, 2025. "Modeling the Oil Price Influences Upon the Energy Sector in the Macroeconomic Context. Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Studia Universitatis „Vasile Goldis” Arad – Economics Series, Sciendo, vol. 35(1), pages 1-29.
    8. Valencia, Oscar & Gamboa-Arbeláez, Juliana & Sánchez, Gustavo, 2025. "Fiscal adjustments and the asymmetric effect of oil shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Ge, Zhenyu, 2023. "The asymmetric impact of oil price shocks on China stock market: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 120-125.
    10. Luyanda Majenge & Sakhile Mpungose & Simiso Msomi, 2025. "Comparative Analysis of VAR and SVAR Models in Assessing Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Transmission to Consumer Prices in South Africa," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-36, February.
    11. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2025. "Assessing government expenditures multipliers under oil price swings," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    12. Victor Pontines & Davaajargal Luvsannyam, 2023. "External Commodity Shocks and the Insulating Role of Fiscal Policy on Real Output: Evidence from a Commodity-Exporting Economy," CAMA Working Papers 2023-57, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono & Mochamad Ali Imron & Muhammad Alkirom Wildan, 2022. "World Oil Prices and Exchange Rates on Islamic Banking Risks," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(4), pages 409-413, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2021-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.