IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecnmx/v13y2025i1p8-d1595752.html

Comparative Analysis of VAR and SVAR Models in Assessing Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Transmission to Consumer Prices in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Luyanda Majenge

    (School of Accounting, Economics & Finance, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa)

  • Sakhile Mpungose

    (School of Accounting, Economics & Finance, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa)

  • Simiso Msomi

    (School of Accounting, Economics & Finance, College of Law & Management Studies, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 3629, South Africa)

Abstract

This study compared standard VAR, SVAR with short-run restrictions, and SVAR with long-run restrictions to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) on consumer prices in South Africa after the 2008 financial crisis. The standard VAR model revealed that consumer prices responded positively to oil price shocks in the short term, whereas the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) revealed a fluctuating currency over time. That is, the South African rand (ZAR) initially appreciated against the US dollar (USD) in response to oil price shocks (periods 1:7), followed by a depreciation in periods 8:12. Imposing short-run restrictions on the SVAR model revealed that the foreign exchange rate (ZAR/USD) reacted to oil price shocks in a manner similar to the VAR model, with ZAR appreciating during the initial periods (1:7) and subsequently depreciating in the later periods (8:12). Consumer prices responded positively to oil price shocks, causing consumer prices to increase in the short run, which is consistent with the VAR findings. However, imposing long-run restrictions on our SVAR model yielded results that contrasted with those obtained under short-run restrictions and the standard VAR model. That is, oil price shocks had long-lasting effects on the foreign exchange rate, resulting in the depreciation of ZAR relative to USD over time. Additionally, oil price shocks reduced consumer prices, resulting in a deflationary effect in the long run. This study concluded that South Africa’s position as a net oil importer with a floating exchange rate renders the country vulnerable to short-term external shocks. Nonetheless, in the long term, the results indicated that the economy tends to adapt to oil price shocks over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Luyanda Majenge & Sakhile Mpungose & Simiso Msomi, 2025. "Comparative Analysis of VAR and SVAR Models in Assessing Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Transmission to Consumer Prices in South Africa," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-36, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:13:y:2025:i:1:p:8-:d:1595752
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/13/1/8/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1146/13/1/8/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony N. Rezitis, 2015. "The relationship between agricultural commodity prices, crude oil prices and US dollar exchange rates: a panel VAR approach and causality analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 403-434, May.
    2. Adekunle, Wasiu & Tiamiyu, Ajao, 2018. "Exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in Nigeria: An asymmetric approach," MPRA Paper 88797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Mishra, Saurabh & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from advanced and developing economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 71-96.
    4. Richard A. Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2009. "To difference or not to difference: a Monte Carlo investigation of inference in vector autoregression models," International Journal of Data Analysis Techniques and Strategies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(3), pages 242-274.
    5. Loría, Eduardo & Sánchez, Armando & Salgado, Uberto, 2010. "New evidence on the monetary approach of exchange rate determination in Mexico 1994-2007: A cointegrated SVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 540-554, April.
    6. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Kuttu, Saint & Aboagye, Anthony Q.Q. & Bokpin, Godfred A., 2018. "Evidence of time-varying conditional discrete jump dynamics in sub-Saharan African foreign exchange markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 211-226.
    8. Simiso Msomi & Harold Ngalawa, 2024. "The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Determination for South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-16, August.
    9. Richard De Abreu Lourenco & David Gruen, 1995. "Price Stickiness and Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9502, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    10. Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun Mammadov & Fariz Ahmadov, 2019. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(4), pages 97-102.
    11. Abildgren, Kim & Hansen, Niels Lynggård & Kuchler, Andreas, 2018. "Overoptimism and house price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-14.
    12. Cavalcanti, Tiago & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks in Brazil and in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 475-486.
    13. Solaymani, Saeed & Kari, Fatimah, 2013. "Environmental and economic effects of high petroleum prices on transport sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 435-441.
    14. Sebastian Edwards, 2012. "The Federal Reserve, the Emerging Markets, and Capital Controls: A High-Frequency Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 151-184, December.
    15. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2005. "Tests for Skewness, Kurtosis, and Normality for Time Series Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 49-60, January.
    16. Hyeongwoo Kim & Ying Lin & Henry Thompson, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 395-415, April.
    17. Lyazzat Kudabayeva & Aktolkin Abubakirova & Aliya Zurbayeva & Gulnar Mussaeva & Gulbakyt Chimgentbayeva, 2024. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Inflation in Oil Ä°mporting Countries (1980-2022)," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(1), pages 359-364, January.
    18. Walid Mensi, 2019. "Global financial crisis and co-movements between oil prices and sector stock markets in Saudi Arabia: A VaR based wavelet," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 19(1), pages 24-38, March.
    19. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L. & Arora, Vipin, 2020. "The relationship between oil prices and exchange rates: Revisiting theory and evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. repec:bla:ecorec:v:76:y:2000:i:235:p:321-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    22. Jesús Crespo‐Cuaresma & Jarko Fidrmuc & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "The monetary approach to exchange rates in the CEECs," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 395-416, April.
    23. Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney Figueira & Bashir, Usman & Donghong, Ding, 2017. "Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 465(C), pages 338-346.
    24. Hoque, Ariful & Chan, Felix & Manzur, Meher, 2008. "Efficiency of the foreign currency options market," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 157-170.
    25. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2021. "Crude Oil Price Changes and Inflation: Evidence for Asia and the Pacific Economies," MPRA Paper 110032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Mardi Dungey & Adrian Pagan, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-342, December.
    27. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    28. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    29. Johannes A. Schwarzer, 2018. "Retrospectives: Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation: Milton Friedman and the "Cruel Dilemma"," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 195-210, Winter.
    30. Al Jabri, Salwa & Raghavan, Mala & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2022. "Oil prices and fiscal policy in an oil-exporter country: Empirical evidence from Oman," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    31. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Sirag, Abdalla & Soon, Siew-Voon, 2017. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through in an emerging market economy: The case of Mexico," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 247-259.
    32. Idil UZ & Mehrin DALAN, 2009. "MONETARY APPROACH TO EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION: The Case of Argentina, Brazil, Taiwan and Turkey, 1986-2006," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(2).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hai Nguyen Duc & Hang Trinh Thi Thu, 2026. "The Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks to Developing Economies: Evidence from Vietnam," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 30(4), pages 1-24, December.
    2. Tafirenyika Sunde, 2025. "Impact of Trade Openness and Exchange Rate Volatility on South Africa’s Industrial Growth: Assessment Using ARDL and SVAR Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-18, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Szafranek, Karol & Szafrański, Grzegorz & Leszczyńska-Paczesna, Agnieszka, 2024. "Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 789-810.
    2. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Guloglu, Hasan, 2024. "Macro-financial transmission of global oil shocks to BRIC countries — International financial (uncertainty) conditions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    3. Harrison, Andre & Liu, Xiaochun & Stewart, Shamar L., 2024. "Are exchange rates absorbers of global oil shocks? A generalized structural analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. de Medeiros, Rennan Kertlly & da Silva Bejarano Aragón, Edilean Kleber & Besarria, Cássio da Nóbrega, 2023. "Effects of oil market sentiment on macroeconomic variables," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Cross, Jamie, 2019. "On the reduced macroeconomic volatility of the Australian economy: Good policy or good luck?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 174-186.
    6. Leila Ben Salem & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2024. "On the Impact of Oil Prices on Sectoral Inflation: Evidence from World’s Top Oil Exporters and Importers," CESifo Working Paper Series 10879, CESifo.
    7. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Ayaz Ahmed, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 491-511.
    8. Muhammad Zeeshan Younas & Muhammad Arshad Khan, 2018. "Macroeconomic Impacts of External Shocks on Economy:Recursive Vector Autoregressive (RVAR) Analysis," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 7(4), pages 169-184, December.
    9. Yue Liu & Pierre Failler & Jiaying Peng & Yuhang Zheng, 2020. "Time-Varying Relationship between Crude Oil Price and Exchange Rate in the Context of Structural Breaks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, May.
    10. Mohd Jaffri Abu Bakar & Nanthakumar Loganathan & Tirta Nugraha Mursitama & Yogeeswari Subramaniam, 2024. "The Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil Price Fluctuation on Exchange Rate Variation: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 810-828, December.
    11. Köse, Nezir & Ünal, Emre, 2021. "The effects of the oil price and oil price volatility on inflation in Turkey," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    12. Adebayo Augustine Kutu & Harold Ngalawa, 2016. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Industrial Sector Performance in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(3), pages 26-40.
    13. Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2013. "The Industrial Impact of Monetary Shocks During the Inflation‐Targeting Era in Australia," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 53(1), pages 47-71, March.
    14. Mansur, Alfan & Liu, Yichang & Zaman, Kazi Arif Uz, 2015. "Portfolio Shocks and the Dynamics of the Real Economy of Australia (1980-2014): A Structural Vector Autoregressive Model Approach," MPRA Paper 93992, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2015.
    15. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
    16. Benjamin Beckers, 2020. "Credit Spreads, Monetary Policy and the Price Puzzle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Tomoyuki Yagi & Yoshiyuki Kurachi & Masato Takahashi & Kotone Yamada & Hiroshi Kawata, 2022. "Pass-Through of Cost-Push Pressures to Consumer Prices," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 22-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    18. Agus Widarjono & Md Mahmudul Alam & Eko Atmadji & Priyonggo Suseno & Listya Endang Artiani, 2023. "The Asymme the Asymmetric Ex TRIC Exchange Ra Ange Rate Pass-Through T ASS-THROUGH to Inflation in the Selected Asean Countries," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(1), pages 105-124, March.
    19. Luo, Jingru & Liu, Jingting & Alba, Joseph D. & Wang, Peiming, 2025. "The international spillovers of US monetary policy uncertainty: Is it a dilemma or trilemma for monetary policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    20. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:13:y:2025:i:1:p:8-:d:1595752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask MDPI Indexing Manager to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.