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Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices

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  • Hyeongwoo Kim

    (Auburn University)

  • Ying Lin

    (Xi’an Jiaotong University)

  • Henry Thompson

    (Auburn University)

Abstract

A number of researchers have found that the rate of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices has declined substantially over the last few decades. We revisit this claim of a shrinking exchange rate effect on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for US macroeconomic data under the current floating exchange rate regime. Our VAR approach nests the conventional single equation method and reveals statistically significant evidence of ERPT to the CPI only during later observations, sharply contrasting with previous findings. After confirming structural breaks in ERPT via statistical tests by Hansen (Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4), 117–128, 2001) and Qu and Perron (Econometrica, 75(2), 459–502, 2007), we seek the source with disaggregated level CPIs, and pin down a key role of energy prices. US energy imports increased from the 1990s until the recent recession. This market changes magnify the effects of the exchange rate shocks on domestic energy prices, resulting in greater responses of the total CPI via the energy price channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Hyeongwoo Kim & Ying Lin & Henry Thompson, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: The Increasing Role of Energy Prices," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 395-415, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:32:y:2021:i:2:d:10.1007_s11079-020-09601-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11079-020-09601-7
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    1. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    2. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
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    5. Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
    6. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2003. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point: A Corrigendum," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 395-397, January.
    7. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, March.
    8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1997. "Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
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    2. Luyanda Majenge & Sakhile Mpungose & Simiso Msomi, 2025. "Comparative Analysis of VAR and SVAR Models in Assessing Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Transmission to Consumer Prices in South Africa," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-36, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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