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Crude Oil Price Changes and Inflation: Evidence for Asia and the Pacific Economies


  • Jiranyakul, Komain


This paper examines the influence of crude oil price on inflation in eight Asian and two of the pacific economies, which are oil-importing countries. The period of investigation is from 1987M5 to 2019M12. The results of bounds testing for cointegration reveal that there is a stable positive long-run relationship between the consumer price index and crude oil price in most of these countries during the period of low and less fluctuating oil prices. However, the stable long-run relationship is found in eight countries, but this stable relationship is found only in one country during the period of high and more fluctuating oil prices. The long-run pass-through of crude oil prices to consumer prices is partial. In the short run, the relationship between a crude oil price change and inflation indicates that the short-run pass-through is low in most cases, but this pass-through is more apparent during the period of high and more fluctuating oil prices. Therefore, the structural break seems to matter in the pass-through of crude oil price to consumer prices in both the long and short run. The findings suggest accommodative monetary policy measures to alleviate the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiranyakul, Komain, 2021. "Crude Oil Price Changes and Inflation: Evidence for Asia and the Pacific Economies," MPRA Paper 110032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110032

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
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    4. Zakaria, Muhammad & Khiam, Shahzeb & Mahmood, Hamid, 2021. "Influence of oil prices on inflation in South Asia: Some new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
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    7. Sam Olofin & Afees A. Salisu, 2017. "Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries and structural breaks," Working Papers 020, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
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    More about this item


    Crude oil price; inflation rate; structural break; oil-importing countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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