Weather Shocks, Spot And Futures Agricultural Commodity Prices: An Analysis For India
We analyze the impact of climate shocks on price formation in spot and futures market for food in India where until the recent introduction of commodity futures markets in 2005, the transmission of these shocks on short-term (spot) price movements was unclear. The existence of a futures market is expected to reduce risk, a major component in agricultural production as well as in price formation. Hitherto, the price discovery mechanism was weak and end price was expected to be different (mostly higher unless if some product prices are administered) from equilibrium price. In addition, this weak mechanism was expected to result in higher price volatility. Though the commodity futures market in India is nascent, we model transmission of weather shocks to future and spot prices using monthly data. Based on cointegration analysis, our results suggest strong cointegration between futures prices (based on MCX AGRI-future index) and spot prices (MCX AGRI-spot index) for commodities traded in futures markets. Our causality and impulse response results show futures prices Granger cause spot prices--a shock in futures prices appears to have an impact on spot prices at least for a five month period with maximum impact with a lag of one month. Changes in rainfall affect both futures and spot prices with different lags. Although there could be other factors that affect the futures prices, after controlling for fuel prices our results clearly show the transmission mechanism of weather shocks to prices. Further, with the help of smooth transition models, the study finds that the bivariate relationship between rainfall and prices of rice, wheat and pulses show some non-linearity with the structural change happening after the introduction of futures market. Also, this relation is found to be much stronger with the introduction futures market. [Working Paper No. 219]
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010.
"What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, C.W. & Hwang, M.J., 2009. "The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: A multivariate threshold regression approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 91-98, January.
- Dasgupta, Dipak & Dubey, R.N. & Sathish, R, 2011. "Domestic Wheat Price Formation and Food Inflation in India," MPRA Paper 31564, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
- Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
- Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Garbade, Kenneth D & Silber, William L, 1983. "Price Movements and Price Discovery in Futures and Cash Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(2), pages 289-297, May.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Chan, Kalok, 1992. "A Further Analysis of the Lead-Lag Relationship between the Cash Market and Stock Index Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 123-152.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
- Dong-Hyun Ahn & Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2002. "Partial Adjustment or Stale Prices? Implications from Stock Index and Futures Return Autocorrelations," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 655-689, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:5172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Padma Prakash)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.