Do household energy expenditures affect mortgage delinquency rates?
We postulate a direct role for energy prices in the 2008 financial crisis. Rising energy prices constrain consumer budgets and thereby raise mortgage delinquency rates. This hypothesis is tested by estimating a quarterly cointegrating vector autoregressive (CVAR) model that seeks to quantify the factors that influence the percentage of US mortgages that are 30 to 89 days past due and those that enter foreclosure. Results identify a long-run relationship for the percentage of US mortgages that are 30 to 89 days past due that includes the interest rate on one-year adjustable mortgages, household expenditures on energy, nominal home prices, rates of home ownership, and the fraction of mortgages 90 days or more past due that enter foreclosure--unemployment rates have a short-run effect. Together, these variables account for much of the historical variation in the percentage of US mortgages that are 30 to 89 days past due and indicate that the post 2006 rise in this measure of mortgage delinquency is associated with falling home prices, an increase in household expenditures on energy, and rising unemployment.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Dees, Stephane & Mann, Micheal, 2009. "Horizontal and vertical transmissions in the US oil supply chain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 644-650, February.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Yoo, B. S., 1990.
"Seasonal integration and cointegration,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 215-238.
- Hyllerberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal Integration And Cointegration," Papers 0-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Hylleberg, S. & Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. & Yoo, B.S., 1988. "Seasonal, Integration And Cointegration," Papers 6-88-2, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
- Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," Economics Working Papers 1045, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," Working Papers 0711, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679, April.
- Grover, Michael & Smith, Laura & Todd, Richard M., 2008. "Targeting foreclosure interventions: An analysis of neighborhood characteristics associated with high foreclosure rates in two Minnesota counties," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 91-109. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)