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Are Exchange Rates Disconnected from Macroeconomic Variables? Evidence from the Factor Approach


  • Yunjung Kim

    () (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

  • Cheolbeom Park

    () (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)


We use factor-augmented predictive regression to analyze the relation between nominal exchange rates and macroeconomic variables. Using a panel of 127 US macroeconomic time series, we estimate eight factors through principal component analysis. Those estimated factors have significant predictive power and can substantially improve the predictive power of Purchasing Power Parity through both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The estimated macroeconomic factor, which comoves with US money supply measures, has strong predictive power for nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the short run, while estimated factors, comoving with interest rate spreads and employment variables, have strong predictive power in the long run. Moreover, optimal factors selected by the BIC in the out-of-sample analysis differ greatly depending on the time points when forecasts are made. Finally, we show that factors extracted from a panel of 127 US time series data and those extracted from a panel of 215 Korean macroeconomic series together can predict a substantial portion of movements in the Korea-US bilateral exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunjung Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2016. "Are Exchange Rates Disconnected from Macroeconomic Variables? Evidence from the Factor Approach," Discussion Paper Series 1606, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  • Handle: RePEc:iek:wpaper:1606

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
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    More about this item


    exchange rate; macroeconomic variables; factor approach; predictive regression;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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