IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/96577.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The impact of economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices on CARB country stock market volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Basher, Syed Abul
  • Haug, Alfred A.
  • Sadorsky, Perry

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks and shocks to commodity prices on the realized stock market volatility of the CARB (Canada, Australia, Russia, and Brazil) countries. The CARB countries are important countries to study because they are major commodity exporters. The analysis is conducted using sign restricted impulse response functions (IRFs) and structural vector-autoregressive IRFs. There are some common results across the CARB countries. A positive shock to commodity prices lowers realized stock market volatility while a shock to economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on realized stock market volatility. The magnitudes of the initial impact of these two shocks are similar. Shocks to global economic activity and short-term interest rates lower realized stock market volatility. The impacts of these shocks are more pronounced in models that use sign restrictions. These results have implications for investors and policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2019. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices on CARB country stock market volatility," MPRA Paper 96577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96577
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/96577/1/MPRA_paper_96577.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    2. Sims, Christopher A., 1988. "Bayesian skepticism on unit root econometrics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 463-474.
    3. Christou, Christina & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns in PacificRim countries: Evidence based on a Bayesian panel VAR model," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-102.
    4. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    5. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    6. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    7. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2019. "Forecasting with High‐Dimensional Panel VARs," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 937-959, October.
    9. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    10. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    11. Li, Xiao-Ming & Peng, Lu, 2017. "US economic policy uncertainty and co-movements between Chinese and US stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 27-39.
    12. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    13. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    14. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    15. Ozturk, Ezgi O. & Sheng, Xuguang Simon, 2018. "Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 276-295.
    16. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    17. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    18. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Kyei, Clement, 2016. "On economic uncertainty, stock market predictability and nonlinear spillover effects," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 184-191.
    19. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
    20. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
    21. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2016. "Incorporating economic policy uncertainty in US equity premium models: A nonlinear predictability analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 291-296.
    22. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    23. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2018. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 264-280.
    24. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    25. Imen Dakhlaoui & Chaker Aloui, 2016. "The Interactive Relationship Between the US Economic Policy Uncertainty and BRIC Stock Markets," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 141-157.
    26. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    27. Jian Chen & Fuwei Jiang & Guoshi Tong, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty in China and stock market expected returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1265-1286, December.
    28. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    29. Bastianin, Andrea & Conti, Francesca & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-169.
    30. Kilian,Lutz & Lütkepohl,Helmut, 2018. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107196575, August.
    31. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Renatas Kizys, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from European Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    32. Tsai, I-Chun, 2017. "The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 122-131.
    33. Vespignani, Joaquin & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald, 2018. "Global Commodity Prices and Global Stock Volatility Shocks," MPRA Paper 84250, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    34. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    35. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; commodity prices; stock market volatility; sign restricted VAR.;

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96577. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.