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Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: lessons to learn

Author

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  • Qiang Ji

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    University of Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (Montpellier Business School
    South Ural State University)

  • Elie Bouri

    (Holy Spirit University of Kaslik)

  • Muhammad Tahir Suleman

    (University of Otago)

Abstract

This study explores the dynamic effects of different oil shocks on real exchange rates in net oil importers and exporters. Specifically, the connectedness measures are combined with the structural vector autoregressive model. The findings show that oil supply shocks have a larger depreciating influence on exchange rates in oil exporters than in importers. All countries are generally more sensitive to oil-specific demand shocks, and this sensitivity can lead to a significant appreciation in real exchange rates, except in Japan and the United Kingdom. Further, the spillover effect between oil shocks and exchange rates has strengthened after the global financial crisis of 2007–08. Our findings provide useful implications for the policy-makers and market risk managers to effectively avoid exchange rate risk induced by oil shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Qiang Ji & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Muhammad Tahir Suleman, 2020. "Dynamic structural impacts of oil shocks on exchange rates: lessons to learn," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecstr:v:9:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1186_s40008-020-00194-5
    DOI: 10.1186/s40008-020-00194-5
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