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Crude oil prices and exchange rates: Causality, variance decomposition and impulse response

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  • Brahmasrene, Tantatape
  • Huang, Jui-Chi
  • Sissoko, Yaya

Abstract

This paper examines the short-run and long-run dynamic relationship between the U.S. imported crude oil prices and exchange rates. The monthly data of the U.S. crude oil imports from five source countries during January 1996 and December 2009 are examined. Empirical results indicate that the exchange rates Granger-caused crude oil prices in the short run while the crude oil prices Granger-caused the exchange rates in the long run. Furthermore, oil prices were affected by the exchange rate changes at a minimal level. However, in the medium run and the long run, oil price shocks had a significant impact on exchange rate changes. Exchange rate shock has a significant negative impact on crude oil prices while the impulse response of the exchange rate variable to a crude oil price shock was statistically insignificant. Finally, the impact of extreme price volatility in June 2008 on exchange rates was significant. When world oil prices are stabilized, currency fluctuations and uncertainty can be minimized.

Suggested Citation

  • Brahmasrene, Tantatape & Huang, Jui-Chi & Sissoko, Yaya, 2014. "Crude oil prices and exchange rates: Causality, variance decomposition and impulse response," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 407-412.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:407-412
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.05.011
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    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Crude oil prices; Granger causality; Panel cointegration; Variance decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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