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Analysis of real oil prices via trend-cycle decomposition

  • Özbek, Levent
  • Özlale, Ümit
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    The recent fluctuations in the oil prices have intensified the discussion on the dynamics and causes of real oil price changes. While the long-run component of real oil prices seems to have a stochastic trend, global real economic activity has been thought to generate important changes in real oil prices. Based on this argument, in this paper, we analyze the real oil prices within a trend-cycle decomposition framework, where we impose a stochastic trend and assume the cyclical term to be affected by global economic conditions. We also let the parameters vary over time to see whether shocks to trend and the cycle have changing effects on the real oil prices. As a result, we find that shocks to trend are more persistent recently. In that sense, this paper contributes to the literature by offering an explanation for the increased volatility in oil prices. In addition, we show that global economic activity contributed also to the previous oil price shocks, which were regarded mainly as supply-side driven.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 7 (July)
    Pages: 3676-3683

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:7:p:3676-3683
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    1. Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
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    7. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    8. Selim Elekdag & Rene Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Dirk Muir & Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "Oil Price Movements and the Global Economy: A Model-Based Assessment," NBER Working Papers 13792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
    10. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2008. "The Supply Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," Working Papers 1097, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    11. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Morana, Claudio, 2001. "A semiparametric approach to short-term oil price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-338, May.
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