IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sef/csefwp/452.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Arms Trade and Oil Dependence

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo Bove

    (University of Warwick)

  • Claudio Deiana

    (University of Essex)

  • Roberto Nisticò

    (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF)

Abstract

We provide novel empirical models of the arms trade and focus on the role of energy dependence, in particular of oil, in explaining the trade of weapons between countries. Dramatic geopolitical events such as wars can cause significant disruptions in the supply of oil and increase oil prices. Oil-dependent economies have therefore incentives to provide security by selling or giving away arms to oil-rich countries and reduce the risk of instability. We find strong empirical support for this claim using data on international transfers of major weapons and information on global and local oil dependence, oil reserves and oil discoveries.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Bove & Claudio Deiana & Roberto Nisticò, 2016. "Global Arms Trade and Oil Dependence," CSEF Working Papers 452, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 10 Feb 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:452
    Note: A former version of this paper was circulated under the title "Energy (in)security and the Arms Trade"
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.csef.it/WP/wp452.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Margherita Comola, 2012. "Democracies, Politics, and Arms Supply," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 150-163, February.
    2. Lei, Yu-Hsiang & Michaels, Guy, 2014. "Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 139-157.
    3. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1999. "The Political Economy of NATO," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521630931.
    4. Christos Kollias & Kleanthis Sirakoulis, 2002. "Arms Racing and the Costs of Arms Imports: A Stochastic Model," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 137-143.
    5. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 49-80, January.
    6. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    7. Seitz, Michael & Tarasov, Alexander & Zakharenko, Roman, 2015. "Trade costs, conflicts, and defense spending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 305-318.
    8. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert E. Lipsey & Haiyan Deng & Alyson C. Ma & Hengyong Mo, 2005. "World Trade Flows: 1962-2000," NBER Working Papers 11040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Navin A Bapat, 2011. "Transnational Terrorism, US Military Aid, and the Incentive to Misrepresent," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 48(3), pages 303-318, May.
    10. Ron P. Smith & Ali Tasiran, 2005. "The Demand for Arms Imports," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 42(2), pages 167-181, March.
    11. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 2015. "Trade and insecure resources," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 98-114.
    12. Santos Silva, J.M.C. & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2011. "Further simulation evidence on the performance of the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 220-222, August.
    13. Paul Levine & Ron Smith, 2000. "Arms Export Controls and Proliferation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 44(6), pages 885-895, December.
    14. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    15. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Feng, Michael, 2014. "Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 339-350.
    16. Brauer, Jurgen, 2007. "Arms Industries, Arms Trade, and Developing Countries," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 30, pages 973-1015, Elsevier.
    17. Akerman, Anders & Seim, Anna Larsson, 2014. "The global arms trade network 1950–2007," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 535-551.
    18. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
    19. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1995. "The Arms Trade and Arms Control," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 471-484, March.
    20. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 2000. "The Arms Trade Game: From Laissez-Faire to a Common Defence Policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(2), pages 357-380, April.
    21. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, March.
    22. Paul Levine & Ron Smith, 1997. "The arms trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 12(25), pages 336-370.
    23. Garcia-Alonso, Maria D.C. & Levine, Paul, 2007. "Arms Trade and Arms Races: A Strategic Analysis," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 29, pages 941-971, Elsevier.
    24. Todd Sandler, 2000. "Arms trade, arms control, and security: Collective action issues," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 533-548.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adelaide Baronchelli & Raul Caruso, 2023. "Italian small arms exports: between incentives and international sanctions," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(3), pages 1075-1106, October.
    2. Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2021. "The Oil Nouveau-Riche and Arms Imports," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(4), pages 349-369.
    3. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Sherif Khalifa, 2021. "African Junta and Defence Spending: A Capture Effect or Self-preservation? [A Theory of Military Dictatorships]," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(3), pages 285-300.
    4. Olaf J de Groot & Carlos Bozzoli & Anousheh Alamir & Tilman Brück, 2022. "The global economic burden of violent conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(2), pages 259-276, March.
    5. Giacomo Battiston & Matteo Bizzarri & Riccardo Franceschin, 2021. "Third-Party Interest, Resource Value, and the Likelihood of Conflict," CSEF Working Papers 631, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy, revised 20 Jun 2022.
    6. Michael Lebacher & Paul W. Thurner & Göran Kauermann, 2021. "Censored regression for modelling small arms trade volumes and its ‘Forensic’ use for exploring unreported trades," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(4), pages 909-933, August.
    7. Auer, Daniel & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2021. "Merchants of death: Arms imports and terrorism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Ben Youssef, Slim, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric relationships between renewable energy, oil imports, arms exports, military spending, and economic growth in China," MPRA Paper 111413, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Pamp, Oliver & Lebacher, Michael & Thurner, Paul W. & Ziegler, Eva, 2021. "Explaining destinations and volumes of international arms transfers: A novel network Heckman selection model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    10. Adelaide Baronchelli & Raul Caruso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2022. "Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons: Are embargoes effective?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1336-1361, May.
    11. Ben Youssef, Slim, 2020. "The relationships between renewable energy, net energy imports, arms exports, and military expenditures in the USA," MPRA Paper 110959, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Callado-Muñoz Francisco J. & Hromcová Jana & Utrero-González Natalia, 2019. "Trade and Military Alliances: Evidence from NATO," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(4), pages 1-8, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pamp, Oliver & Lebacher, Michael & Thurner, Paul W. & Ziegler, Eva, 2021. "Explaining destinations and volumes of international arms transfers: A novel network Heckman selection model," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    2. Gangopadhyay Partha, 2014. "A Formal Model of Arms Market with Cash-for-Favours," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 1-18, August.
    3. Alberto Alesina & Johann Harnoss & Hillel Rapoport, 2016. "Birthplace diversity and economic prosperity," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 101-138, June.
    4. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    5. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2015. "Can Trade Agreements Curtail Trade Creation and Prevent Trade Diversion?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 221-238, May.
    6. Juyoung Cheong & Do Won Kwak & Kam Ki Tang, 2016. "The distance effects on the intensive and extensive margins of trade over time," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 253-278, March.
    7. Adelaide Baronchelli & Raul Caruso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2022. "Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons: Are embargoes effective?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 1336-1361, May.
    8. Margherita Comola, 2009. "Democracies, politics and arms supply: A bilateral trade equation," Working Papers halshs-00585982, HAL.
    9. David Kinsella, 2011. "The Arms Trade," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 12, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    11. Rodolfo Metulini & Roberto Patuelli & Daniel A. Griffith, 2018. "A Spatial-Filtering Zero-Inflated Approach to the Estimation of the Gravity Model of Trade," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15, February.
    12. Elisaveta Archanskaia & Guillaume Daudin, 2012. "Heterogeneity and the Distance Puzzle," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9ji21mi9p3 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ahcar, Jaime & Siroën, Jean-Marc, 2017. "Deep Integration: Considering the Heterogeneity of Free Trade Agreements," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 32(3), pages 615-659.
    15. Bove Vincenzo & Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, 2011. "2010 Lewis Fry Richardson Lifetime Achievement Award: Ron P. Smith and the Economics of War and Peace," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, December.
    16. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Blum, Johannes, 2019. "Arms production, national defense spending and arms trade: Examining supply and demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    18. Florian Johannsen & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, "undated". "Political Determinants of the Extensive and Intensive Margins of International Arms Transfers," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 228, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Vincenzo Bove & Leandro Elia & Petros G. Sekeris, 2014. "US Security Strategy and the Gains from Bilateral Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 863-885, November.
    20. Johannes Blum, 2019. "Arms Production, National Defense Spending and Arms Trade: Examining Supply and Demand," ifo Working Paper Series 310, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    21. Gnutzmann, Hinnerk & Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik & Korn, Tobias, 2021. "Consequences of FTA Withdrawal: Evidence from 'Uxit'," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-681, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arms Trade; Oil; Security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:452. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Maria Carannante (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cssalit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.