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Arms Racing and the Costs of Arms Imports: A Stochastic Model

Listed author(s):
  • Christos Kollias
  • Kleanthis Sirakoulis

The paper draws on the demand for arms imports model of Levine and Smith (1995, 1997) using stochastic processes of the birth-death type in steady state. It assumes two antagonistic regional players engaged in an armaments race satisfying their demand for military hardware through imports from the international market. The paper examines the effects that arms imports have on the military balance between the two recipient countries. It constructs a state space of possible outcomes in terms of the military balance/imbalance between the two countries involved. A new variable is introduced which tries to encapsulate the absolute difference in their respective security functions at any moment in time. This variable affects the transition from one state of affairs to the other.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Defence and Peace Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 137-143

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Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:137-143
DOI: 10.1080/10242690210970
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  1. Intriligator, Michael D, 1975. "Strategic Considerations in the Richardson Model of Arms Races," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 339-353, April.
  2. Behrens, D. A. & Feichtinger, G. & Prskawetz, A., 1997. "Complex dynamics and control of arms race," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 192-215, July.
  3. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1997. "The arms trade and the stability of regional arms races," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 631-654.
  4. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1995. "The Arms Trade and Arms Control," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 471-484, March.
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