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Arms Racing and the Costs of Arms Imports: A Stochastic Model

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  • Christos Kollias
  • Kleanthis Sirakoulis

Abstract

The paper draws on the demand for arms imports model of Levine and Smith (1995, 1997) using stochastic processes of the birth-death type in steady state. It assumes two antagonistic regional players engaged in an armaments race satisfying their demand for military hardware through imports from the international market. The paper examines the effects that arms imports have on the military balance between the two recipient countries. It constructs a state space of possible outcomes in terms of the military balance/imbalance between the two countries involved. A new variable is introduced which tries to encapsulate the absolute difference in their respective security functions at any moment in time. This variable affects the transition from one state of affairs to the other.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Kollias & Kleanthis Sirakoulis, 2002. "Arms Racing and the Costs of Arms Imports: A Stochastic Model," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 137-143.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:13:y:2002:i:2:p:137-143
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690210970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael D. Intriligator & Dagobert L. Brito, 1987. "Can Arms Races Lead to the Outbreak of War?," International Economic Association Series, in: Christian Schmidt (ed.), The Economics of Military Expenditures, chapter 9, pages 180-196, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Intriligator, Michael D, 1975. "Strategic Considerations in the Richardson Model of Arms Races," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 339-353, April.
    3. Behrens, D. A. & Feichtinger, G. & Prskawetz, A., 1997. "Complex dynamics and control of arms race," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 192-215, July.
    4. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1997. "The arms trade and the stability of regional arms races," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 631-654.
    5. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1995. "The Arms Trade and Arms Control," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 471-484, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2011. "Financial Versus Human Resources In The Greek--Turkish Arms Race 10 Years On: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 459-469, November.
    2. Margherita Comola, 2009. "Democracies, politics and arms supply: A bilateral trade equation," PSE Working Papers halshs-00585982, HAL.
    3. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2010. "Financial vs human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race 10 years on," MPRA Paper 38505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Vincenzo Bove & Claudio Deiana & Roberto Nistic�, 2018. "Global Arms Trade and Oil Dependence," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 272-299.
    5. Andreou Andreas S & Zombanakis George A, 2006. "The Arms Race between Greece and Turkey: Commenting on a Major Unresolved Issue," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, September.

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