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A theorem on the existence of zones of initiation and deterrence in Intriligator-Brito arms race models

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  • Murray Wolfson

Abstract

We should be clear what this paper has demonstrated and what it has not demonstrated. It has provided one case for a two party arms race in which a zone of deterrence does not exist and a zone of war initiation occupies the central region of the arms race plane. It has shown that the sufficient conditions for a multi-party arms race become progressively more implausible as more parties enter the race. The failure of these sufficient conditions is not a failure of necessary conditions: it has not been shown that it is impossible for zones of deterrence to exist in multi-party arms race. However, unless sufficient conditions can be satisfied it is impossible to assert that they will always exist for plausible values of the parameters. Counter examples to the existence hypothesis can readily be produced for sufficiently high counterforce efficiencies and sufficiently many participants. Copyright Martinus Nijhoff Publishers 1987

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  • Murray Wolfson, 1987. "A theorem on the existence of zones of initiation and deterrence in Intriligator-Brito arms race models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 291-297, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:54:y:1987:i:3:p:291-297
    DOI: 10.1007/BF00125653
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    1. Michael Intriligator & Dagobert Brito, 1981. "Nuclear proliferation and the probability of nuclear war," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 247-260, January.
    2. Michael D. Intriligator & Dagobert L. Brito, 1987. "Can Arms Races Lead to the Outbreak of War?," International Economic Association Series, in: Christian Schmidt (ed.), The Economics of Military Expenditures, chapter 9, pages 180-196, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Intriligator, Michael D, 1975. "Strategic Considerations in the Richardson Model of Arms Races," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 339-353, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Murray Wolfson & Anil Puri & Mario Martelli, 1992. "The Nonlinear Dynamics of International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(1), pages 119-149, March.
    2. Anderton,Charles H. & Carter,John R., 2009. "Principles of Conflict Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521875578, December.
    3. Murray Wolfson & Homa Shabahang, 1991. "Economic Causation in the Breakdown of Military Equilibrium," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 43-67, March.
    4. Isard Walter & Anderton Charles H., 1999. "Survey of the Peace Economics Literature: Recent Key Contributions and a Comprehensive Coverage Up to 1992 (Part II)," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-55, October.
    5. Charles H. Anderton & Thomas Fogarty, 1990. "Consequential Damage and Nuclear Deterrence," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, February.

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