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Proliferation and the Probability of War

Author

Listed:
  • Dagobert L. Brito

    (Rice University)

  • Michael D. Intriligator

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

To determine formally the effects of nuclear proliferation on the probability of a deliberate nuclear war requires more than just qualitative assertions about the change in the probability that an individual nation will initiate a deliberate nuclear war as the number of nuclear powers increases. For a model to predict that an increase in the number of nuclear powers will increase or decrease the probability of a deliberate nuclear war, it is necessary that it be able to predict the cardinality of the change in the probability that any one nation will initiate a nuclear war. Inasmuch as this is beyond the capability of most models in economics and political science, the formal debate on this issue should be viewed with caution. It is likely that the dominant factor when considering the effect of proliferation on the probability of a nuclear war is that it will occur as a result of an accident or other inadvertent behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagobert L. Brito & Michael D. Intriligator, 1996. "Proliferation and the Probability of War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(1), pages 206-214, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:40:y:1996:i:1:p:206-214
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002796040001009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael D. Intriligator & Dagobert L. Brito, 1987. "Can Arms Races Lead to the Outbreak of War?," International Economic Association Series, in: Christian Schmidt (ed.), The Economics of Military Expenditures, chapter 9, pages 180-196, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Michael Intriligator & Dagobert Brito, 1981. "Nuclear proliferation and the probability of nuclear war," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 247-260, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Intriljgator & Dagobert Brito, 2000. "Arms Races," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 45-54.
    2. Robert Rauchhaus, 2009. "Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(2), pages 258-277, April.
    3. Michael Horowitz, 2009. "The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(2), pages 234-257, April.
    4. Intriligator Michael D, 2011. "Peace Science and Peace Economics Can Help Win the Fight against Nuclear Proliferation," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1-10, January.

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