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An Introduction To Lewis Fry Richardson and His Mathematical Theory of War and Peace

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  • G. D. Hess

    (5/63 Roslyn Street Brighton, Victoria 3186 Australia)

Abstract

Lewis Fry Richardson was a pioneer of peace research. His brilliant, groundbreaking studies, Arms and Insecurity, and Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, showed how mathematical modeling techniques and statistical analysis could be applied to quantitatively investigate questions relating to war and peace. These studies and his database on “deadly quarrels“, that is quarrels in which humans died, have influenced many peace researchers and continue to be a rich source of ideas. In this paper we begin by giving a brief background sketch of Richardson's life. We then proceed to introduce some of the basic ideas of his peace research. Richardson's work indicates a number of areas of difficulty and limits to our understanding, both in regards to theory and to data, and it raises questions that still need to be addressed. It also demonstrates the need for an interdisciplinary approach.

Suggested Citation

  • G. D. Hess, 1995. "An Introduction To Lewis Fry Richardson and His Mathematical Theory of War and Peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 14(1), pages 77-113, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:14:y:1995:i:1:p:77-113
    DOI: 10.1177/073889429501400104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles H. Anderton, 1989. "Arms Race Modeling," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(2), pages 346-367, June.
    2. Michael D. Intriligator & Dagobert L. Brito, 1987. "Can Arms Races Lead to the Outbreak of War?," International Economic Association Series, in: Christian Schmidt (ed.), The Economics of Military Expenditures, chapter 9, pages 180-196, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. McGowan, Patrick J. & Rood, Robert M., 1975. "Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems: Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 859-870, September.
    4. Aurélie Charles, 2012. "Introduction," Perspectives from Social Economics, in: Exchange Entitlement Mapping, pages 1-7, Palgrave Macmillan.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alvin M. Saperstein, 2004. "“The Enemy of My Enemy Is My Friend†Is the Enemy: Dealing with the War-Provoking Rules of Intent," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(4), pages 287-296, September.
    3. Reuveny, Rafael & Maxwell, John W. & Davis, Jefferson, 2011. "On conflict over natural resources," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 698-712, February.
    4. Saperstein Alvin M., 1999. "Plutonium - Burn It or Bury It?: Using the Richardson Model, and Its Non-Linear Extensions, as a "Decision Tool" in Helping to Choose Between the Use and Disposal of Surplus Nuclear Weapons ," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-27, October.

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