IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14539.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus

Author

Listed:
  • Andreou, Andreas S.
  • Zombanakis, George A.

Abstract

This paper aims at introducing a relative security measure, applicable to evaluating the impact of arms races on the military security of allies. This measure is based on demographic criteria, which play a dominant role in a number of arms races involving military alliances. The case of Greece and Cyprus, on one hand, and Turkey on the other, is the one to which our relative security measure is applied and tested. Artificial neural networks were trained to forecast the future behaviour of relative security. The high forecasting performance permitted the application of alternative scenarios for predicting the impact of the Greek - Turkish arms race on the relative security of the Greek - Cypriot alliance.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2001. "A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus," MPRA Paper 14539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14539
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14539/1/MPRA_paper_14539.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles H. Anderton, 1989. "Arms Race Modeling," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(2), pages 346-367, June.
    2. repec:cup:apsrev:v:77:y:1983:i:02:p:330-346_24 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
    4. Majeski, Stephen J., 1984. "Arms races as iterated prisoner's dilemma games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 253-266, June.
    5. Stavrinos, Vasilios G. & Zombanakis, George A., 1998. "The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt," MPRA Paper 17758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2000. "Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 13892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Walter Isard & Charles H. Anderton, 1985. "Arms Race Models: A Survey and Synthesis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 8(2), pages 27-98, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreou, Andreas S. & Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "The Cyprus Puzzle and the Greek – Turkish Arms Race," MPRA Paper 78749, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    2. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Intelligent information systems for defence problems," MPRA Paper 38637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. ANDREOU, ANDREAS & PARSOPOULOS, KONSTANTINE & VRACHATIS, MICHAEL & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Optimal Versus Required Defence Spending," MPRA Paper 78663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    4. Andreou, Andreas S. & Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2005. "Soft computing for crisis management and political decision making: the use of genetically evolved fuzzy cognitive maps," MPRA Paper 51325, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Nov 2004.
    5. ANDREOU, A. S. & PARSOPOULOS, K. E. & VRACHATIS, M. N. & Zombanakis, George A., 2002. "Searching for the Optimal Defence Expenditure: An Answer in the Context of the Greek – Turkish Arms Race," MPRA Paper 51580, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2002.
    6. Andreou, Andreas S. & Parsopoulos, Konstantine & Vrachatis, Michael & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Optimal Versus Required Defence Expenditure Revisited," MPRA Paper 78765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    7. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2002. "Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 329-347.
    8. Andreou, A. S. & Mateou, N. H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Crisis Management and Political Decision Making Using Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps," MPRA Paper 51639, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Feb 2003.
    9. Andreou Andreas S & Zombanakis George A, 2006. "The Arms Race between Greece and Turkey: Commenting on a Major Unresolved Issue," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, September.
    10. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2004. "An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners' relative security contribution," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 481-495.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arms Race; Neural Networks; Relative Military Security;

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14539. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.