A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus
This paper aims at introducing a relative security measure, applicable to evaluating the impact of arms races on the military security of allies. This measure is based on demographic criteria, which play a dominant role in a number of arms races involving military alliances. The case of Greece and Cyprus, on one hand, and Turkey on the other, is the one to which our relative security measure is applied and tested. Artificial neural networks were trained to forecast the future behaviour of relative security. The high forecasting performance permitted the application of alternative scenarios for predicting the impact of the Greek - Turkish arms race on the relative security of the Greek - Cypriot alliance.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Date of revision:||2001|
|Publication status:||Published in Defence and Peace Economics 4.12(2001): pp. 303-324|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
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- Charles H. Anderton, 1989. "Arms Race Modeling," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 33(2), pages 346-367, June.
- Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
- Majeski, Stephen J., 1984. "Arms races as iterated prisoner's dilemma games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 253-266, June.
- Stavrinos, Vasilios G. & Zombanakis, George A., 1998. "The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt," MPRA Paper 17758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2000. "Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 13892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Walter Isard & Charles H. Anderton, 1985. "Arms Race Models: A Survey and Synthesis," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 8(2), pages 27-98, February.
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