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Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks

Listed author(s):
  • Andreou, Andreas S.
  • Zombanakis, George A.

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 13892.

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Date of creation: Jan 2000
Publication status: Published in Defence and Peace Economics 4.11(2000): pp. 403-426
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13892
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  1. Christos Kollias, 1995. "Preliminary findings on the economic effects of Greek military expenditure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 16-18.
  2. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
  3. Antonakis, Nicholas, 1996. "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: A Simulta¬neous Equation Approach with an Appli¬cation to Greece, 1958-90," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 49(3), pages 329-346.
  4. Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-280, January.
  5. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1997. "The arms trade and the stability of regional arms races," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 631-654.
  6. Stavrinos, Vasilios G. & Zombanakis, George A., 1998. "The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt," MPRA Paper 17758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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