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Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks

Author

Listed:
  • Andreou, Andreas S.
  • Zombanakis, George A.

Abstract

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2000. "Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 13892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:13892
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christos Kollias, 1995. "Preliminary findings on the economic effects of Greek military expenditure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 16-18.
    2. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
    3. Antonakis, Nicholas, 1996. "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Less Developed Countries: A Simulta¬neous Equation Approach with an Appli¬cation to Greece, 1958-90," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 49(3), pages 329-346.
    4. Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-280, January.
    5. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1997. "The arms trade and the stability of regional arms races," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 631-654.
    6. Stavrinos, Vasilios G. & Zombanakis, George A., 1998. "The Vicious Cycle of the Foreign Military Debt," MPRA Paper 17758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreou, Andreas S. & Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "The Cyprus Puzzle and the Greek – Turkish Arms Race," MPRA Paper 78749, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    2. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Intelligent information systems for defence problems," MPRA Paper 38637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Andreou Andreas S. & Zombanakis George A. & Migiakis Petros M., 2013. "On Defence Expenditure Reduction: Balancing Between Austerity and Security in Greece," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, December.
    4. ANDREOU, ANDREAS & PARSOPOULOS, KONSTANTINE & VRACHATIS, MICHAEL & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Optimal Versus Required Defence Spending," MPRA Paper 78663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    5. Andreou, Andreas S. & Parsopoulos, Konstantine & Vrachatis, Michael & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Optimal Versus Required Defence Expenditure Revisited," MPRA Paper 78765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    6. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2011. "Financial Versus Human Resources In The Greek--Turkish Arms Race 10 Years On: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 459-469, November.
    7. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:3:p:15:n:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2002. "Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 329-347.
    9. Andreou, Andreas & Zombanakis, George, 2003. "Measuring Relative Military Security," MPRA Paper 78660, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    10. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2010. "Financial vs human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race 10 years on," MPRA Paper 38505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2002. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race? Some further empirical results from causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 321-328.
    12. Andreou Andreas S & Zombanakis George A, 2006. "The Arms Race between Greece and Turkey: Commenting on a Major Unresolved Issue," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, September.
    13. A. S. Andreou & K. E. Parsopoulos & M. N. Vrahatis & G. A. Zombanakis, 2004. "An alliance between Cyprus and Greece: assessing its partners' relative security contribution," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(5), pages 481-495.
    14. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2001. "A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus," MPRA Paper 14539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greek Military Debt; Defence Expenditure; Neural Networks;

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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