IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/defpea/v11y2000i2p403-426.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial versus human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race: A forecasting investigation using artificial neural networks

Author

Listed:
  • A. S. Andreoua
  • G. A. Zombanakisb

Abstract

This paper aims at forecasting the burden on the Greek economy resulting from the arms race against Turkey and at concentrating on the leading determinants of this burden. The military debt and the defence share of GDP are employed alternatively in order to approximate the measurement of the arms race pressure on Greece, and the method used is that of artificial neural networks. The use of a wide variety of explanatory variables in combination with the promising results derived, suggest that the impact on the Greek economy resulting from this arms race is determined, to a large, extent, by demographic factors which strongly favour the Turkish side. Prediction on both miltary debt and defence expenditure exhibited highly satisfactory accuracy, while the estimation of input significance, indicates that variables describing the Turkish side are often dominant over the corresponding Greek ones.

Suggested Citation

  • A. S. Andreoua & G. A. Zombanakisb, 2000. "Financial versus human resources in the Greek-Turkish arms race: A forecasting investigation using artificial neural networks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 403-426.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:2:p:403-426
    DOI: 10.1080/10430710008404956
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10430710008404956
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/10430710008404956?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christos Kollias, 1995. "Preliminary findings on the economic effects of Greek military expenditure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 16-18.
    2. Todd Sandler, 1997. "The future challenges of NATO: An economic viewpoint," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 319-353.
    3. Christos G. Kollias, 1996. "The Greek - Turkish Conflict and Greek Military Expenditure 1960-92," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 33(2), pages 217-228, May.
    4. Levine, Paul & Smith, Ron, 1997. "The arms trade and the stability of regional arms races," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 631-654.
    5. Tim Hill & Marcus O'Connor & William Remus, 1996. "Neural Network Models for Time Series Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(7), pages 1082-1092, July.
    6. Sandler, Todd, 1997. "The Future of Nato," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1224, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Paul Levine & Ron Smith, 1997. "The arms trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 12(25), pages 336-370.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreou Andreas S. & Zombanakis George A. & Migiakis Petros M., 2013. "On Defence Expenditure Reduction: Balancing Between Austerity and Security in Greece," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, December.
    2. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2011. "Financial Versus Human Resources In The Greek--Turkish Arms Race 10 Years On: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 459-469, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George, 2003. "The Greek-Turkish Arms Race Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 78576, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    2. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2000. "Financial Versus Human Resources in the Greek-Turkish Arms Race: A Forecasting Investigation Using Artificial Neural Networks," MPRA Paper 13892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. ANDREOU, ANDREAS & PARSOPOULOS, KONSTANTINE & VRACHATIS, MICHAEL & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Optimal Versus Required Defence Spending," MPRA Paper 78663, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    4. ANDREOU, A. S. & PARSOPOULOS, K. E. & VRACHATIS, M. N. & Zombanakis, George A., 2002. "Searching for the Optimal Defence Expenditure: An Answer in the Context of the Greek – Turkish Arms Race," MPRA Paper 51580, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Aug 2002.
    5. Margherita Comola, 2009. "Democracies, politics and arms supply: A bilateral trade equation," Working Papers halshs-00585982, HAL.
    6. Paul Levine & Fotis Mouzakis & Ron Smith, 2000. "Arms export controls and emerging domestic producers," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 505-531.
    7. Bove Vincenzo & Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, 2011. "2010 Lewis Fry Richardson Lifetime Achievement Award: Ron P. Smith and the Economics of War and Peace," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, December.
    8. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 2000. "A note on the causal relationship between defence spending and growth in Greece: 1955-93," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 173-184.
    9. Hanno Beck & Aloys Prinz, 2002. "Ordnungspolitik auf illegalen Märkten: Der Drogen‐ und Waffenmarkt," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(1), pages 23-35, February.
    10. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-37, November.
    11. Ron Smith & J. Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2000. "The econometrics of arms races," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 31-43.
    12. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Intelligent information systems for defence problems," MPRA Paper 38637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Claudia Perez-Formes & Alain Cuenca, 2001. "Nato in the post-cold war: An empirical analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 487-496.
    14. Burcu Savun & Brian J. Phillips, 2009. "Democracy, Foreign Policy, and Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 53(6), pages 878-904, December.
    15. Andreou Andreas S. & Zombanakis George A. & Migiakis Petros M., 2013. "On Defence Expenditure Reduction: Balancing Between Austerity and Security in Greece," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 437-458, December.
    16. Quan Li & Drew Schaub, 2004. "Economic Globalization and Transnational Terrorism," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 48(2), pages 230-258, April.
    17. Zoran Vojinovic & Vojislav Kecman & Rainer Seidel, 2001. "A data mining approach to financial time series modelling and forecasting," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 225-239, December.
    18. Ebrahimpour, Reza & Nikoo, Hossein & Masoudnia, Saeed & Yousefi, Mohammad Reza & Ghaemi, Mohammad Sajjad, 2011. "Mixture of MLP-experts for trend forecasting of time series: A case study of the Tehran stock exchange," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 804-816, July.
    19. Alejandro Quiroz Flores, 2011. "Alliances as Contiguity in Spatial Models of Military Expenditures," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(4), pages 402-418, September.
    20. Ghiassi, M. & Saidane, H. & Zimbra, D.K., 2005. "A dynamic artificial neural network model for forecasting time series events," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 341-362.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:11:y:2000:i:2:p:403-426. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/GDPE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.