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Crisis Management and Political Decision Making Using Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Author

Listed:
  • Andreou, A. S.
  • Mateou, N. H.
  • Zombanakis, George A.

Abstract

This paper examines the use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) as a technique for modeling political and crisis situations and supporting the decision-making process. FCMs use notions borrowed from artificial intelligence and neural networks to combine concepts and causal relationships, in the form of dynamic models that describe a given political setting. The present work proposes the use of the Genetically Evolved Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Map (GECNFCM) as an extension of Certainty Neuron Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (CNFCMs) aiming at overcoming the main weaknesses of the latter, namely the recalculation of the weights corresponding to each concept every time a new strategy is adopted. This novel technique combines CNFCMs with Genetic Algorithms (GAs), the advantage of which lies with their ability to offer the optimal solution without a problem-solving strategy, once the requirements are defined. We demonstrate the value of such a hybrid technique in the context of a model reflecting the complexity of the Cyprus problem. The scenario analysis performed makes decision makers aware of political uncertainties, while multiple scenario analysis brings uncertainty into the decision process by combining it with different future states.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreou, A. S. & Mateou, N. H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "Crisis Management and Political Decision Making Using Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps," MPRA Paper 51639, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Feb 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:51639
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. F S Roberts, 1975. "Weighted Digraph Models for the Assessment of Energy Use and Air Pollution in Transportation Systems," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 7(6), pages 703-724, September.
    2. A. S. Andreou & G. A. Zombanakis, 2001. "A neural network measurement of relative military security - the case of Greece and Cyprus," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 303-324.
    3. Andreou, Andreas S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2001. "A Neural Network Measurement of Relative Military Security: The Case of Greece and Cyprus," MPRA Paper 14539, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andreou, Andreas S. & Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2003. "The Cyprus Puzzle and the Greek – Turkish Arms Race," MPRA Paper 78749, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2003.
    2. Mateou, N. H. & Andreou, A. S. & Zombanakis, George A., 2004. "Fuzzification and Defuzzification Process in Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (GEFCMs)," MPRA Paper 51376, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2004.
    3. ANDREOU, A.S. & MATEOU, N.H & Zombanakis, George A., 2004. "Optimization in Genetically Evolved Fuzzy Cognitive Maps Supporting Decision-Making: The Limit Cycle Case," MPRA Paper 51378, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jan 2004.
    4. Mateou, Nicos H. & Zombanakis, George A., 2009. "Fuzzy cognitive maps face the question of the Greek current account deficit sustainability," MPRA Paper 38574, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bąk Iwona & Cheba Katarzyna, 2020. "Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and their Application in the Economic Sciences," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 24(3), pages 20-36, September.
    6. Magdalena Ziolo & Beata Zofia Filipiak & Iwona Bąk & Katarzyna Cheba, 2019. "How to Design More Sustainable Financial Systems: The Roles of Environmental, Social, and Governance Factors in the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-34, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fuzzy Cognitive Maps; Hybrid Modeling; Genetic Algorithms; Decision-Making;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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