IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bgu/wpaper/0809.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On The Dynamics Of The Israeli-Arab Arms Race

Author

Listed:
  • Aamer S. Abu-Qarn

    (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

  • Suleiman Abu-Bader

    (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of Pesaran and Shin (1998). Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel’s to Arab’s military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel’s and Jordan’s military spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2008. "On The Dynamics Of The Israeli-Arab Arms Race," Working Papers 0809, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0809
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://in.bgu.ac.il/en/humsos/Econ/Workingpapers/0809.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    2. Michael Intriljgator & Dagobert Brito, 2000. "Arms Races," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 45-54.
    3. Michael Beenstock, 1998. "Country survey XI: Defence and the Israeli economy," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 171-222.
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    6. Martin C. McGuire, 1982. "U.S. Assistance, Israeli Allocation, and the Arms Race in the Middle East," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(2), pages 199-235, June.
    7. Abu-Qarn Aamer S & Abu-Bader Suleiman, 2008. "Structural Breaks in Military Expenditures: Evidence for Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, April.
    8. Mintz, Alex & Ward, Michael D., 1989. "The Political Economy of Military Spending in Israel," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 521-533, June.
    9. McGuire, Martin C, 1987. "Foreign Assistance, Investment, and Defense: A Methodological Study with an Application to Israel, 1960-1979," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(4), pages 847-873, July.
    10. Seiglie, Carlos & Liu, Peter C., 2002. "Arms races in the developing world: some policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 693-705, November.
    11. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    12. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    13. Christos Kollias & Stelios Makrydakis, 1997. "Is there a Greek-Turkish arms race?: Evidence from cointegration and causality tests," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 355-379.
    14. Julide Yildirim & Nadir Ocal, 2006. "Arms Race And Economic Growth: The Case Of India And Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 37-45.
    15. Ron Smith & J. Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2000. "The econometrics of arms races," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 31-43.
    16. Dunne J. Paul & Nikolaidou Eftychia & Smith Ron P., 2005. "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 1-37, November.
    17. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & J Paul Dunne & Yasmine M. Abdelfattah & Shadwa Zaher, 2010. "The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt," Working Papers 1001, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    2. Yasmine M. Abdelfattah & Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & J. Paul Dunne & Shadwa Zaher, 2014. "The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 231-245, June.
    3. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, 2008. "Six decades of the Israeli-Arab conflict: An assessment of the economic aspects," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 8-15, July.
    4. Chia-I Pan & Tsangyao Chang & Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2015. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in the Middle East Countries: Bootstrap Panel Causality Test," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 443-456, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn, 2008. "Six decades of the Israeli-Arab conflict: An assessment of the economic aspects," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 3(2), pages 8-15, July.
    2. Aamer Abu-qarn, 2010. "The Defence-Growth Nexus Revisited: Evidence From The Israeli-Arab Conflict," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 291-300.
    3. Aamer Abu-Qarn, 2010. "The Defense-Growth Nexus: An Application for the Israeli-Arab Conflict," Working Papers 1003, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    4. Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2014. "Long-term equilibrium relationship between urbanization, energy consumption and economic activity: Empirical evidence from India," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 324-331.
    5. Cosimo Magazzino, 2016. "The relationship between real GDP, CO2 emissions, and energy use in the GCC countries: A time series approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1152729-115, December.
    6. Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Long run relationship between entry and exit: time series evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 12(11), pages 1-12.
    7. Man-Keun Kim & Kangil Lee, 2015. "Dynamic Interactions between Carbon and Energy Prices in the U.S. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(2), pages 494-501.
    8. Nepal, Rabindra & Paija, Nirash, 2019. "A multivariate time series analysis of energy consumption, real output and pollutant emissions in a developing economy: New evidence from Nepal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 164-173.
    9. Chang, Chia-Lin & Della Chang, Jui-Chuan & Huang, Yi-Wei, 2013. "Dynamic price integration in the global gold market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-235.
    10. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Can Nuclear Energy Stimulates Economic Growth? Evidence from Highly Industrialised Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 164-173.
    11. Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & Begum, Ismat Ara & Buysse, Jeroen & Rahman, Sanzidur & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of causal relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3243-3251, August.
    12. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2010. "Bounds test approach to cointegration and causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 52-58, January.
    13. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2011. "World oil prices and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from an emerging market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 488-496, May.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:12:y:2006:i:11:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T., 2007. "Energy consumption, income, and carbon emissions in the United States," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3-4), pages 482-489, May.
    16. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Can China contribute more to the fight against global warming?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 837-846, November.
    17. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    18. Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2010. "Dynamics Of Inflation, Output Growth And Their Uncertainty In The Uk: An Empirical Analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 511-537, December.
    19. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    20. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2005. "Energy demand and economic growth: The African experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 891-903, November.
    21. Syed Ali Raza & Muhammad Shahbaz & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2017. "Dynamics of Military Expenditure and Income Inequality in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 1035-1055, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Arms race; Middle East; Israeli-Arab conflict; Causality; Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0809. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edbguil.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aamer Abu-Qarn (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edbguil.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.