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On The Dynamics Of The Israeli-Arab Arms Race


  • Aamer S. Abu-Qarn

    () (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)

  • Suleiman Abu-Bader

    () (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev)


This paper investigates the causal relationships between the military expenditures and military burden of the four major sides of the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely, Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria over the period 1960-2004. We utilize both the causality test suggested by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and the generalized forecast error variance decomposition method of Pesaran and Shin (1998). Our findings suggest weak causality that runs usually from Israel’s to Arab’s military spending. The strongest links are between Israel and Syria that are still in a state of enmity. No causality was detected between Israel’s and Jordan’s military spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2008. "On The Dynamics Of The Israeli-Arab Arms Race," Working Papers 0809, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0809

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    11. Abu-Qarn Aamer S & Abu-Bader Suleiman, 2008. "Structural Breaks in Military Expenditures: Evidence for Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-25, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & J Paul Dunne & Yasmine M. Abdelfattah & Shadwa Zaher, 2010. "The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt," Working Papers 1001, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    2. Yasmine M. Abdelfattah & Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & J. Paul Dunne & Shadwa Zaher, 2014. "The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 231-245, June.

    More about this item


    Arms race; Middle East; Israeli-Arab conflict; Causality; Generalized Forecast Error Variance Decomposition;

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East


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