IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bgu/wpaper/0704.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Structural Breaks In Military Expenditures: Evidence For Egypt, Israel,Jordan And Syria

Author

Listed:
  • Aamer S. Abu-Qarn

    () (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel)

  • Suleiman Abu-Bader

    () (Dept. of Economics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Israel)

Abstract

This paper endogenously determines the timing of structural breaks in military expenditures and military burdens for the major parties involved in the Israeli-Arab conflict, namely Egypt, Israel, Jordan, and Syria over the period 1960-2004. Utilizing a test proposed by Vogelsang (1997), we find that all these countries experienced structural breaks, though at different periods in the late 70s and during the 80s. These structural breaks mark a sharp decline in the military burden that can be attributed to the peace talks that were initiated shortly after the 1973 war. When applying the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) multiple structural break tests we detect two structural breaks for every country. The first break occurred during the 60s and demonstrated a significant rise in the military burden prior to the 1973 war, whereas the second break occurred in the late 70s and during the 80s and was characterized by a sharp decline in the military burden following the instigation of peace negotiations.

Suggested Citation

  • Aamer S. Abu-Qarn & Suleiman Abu-Bader, 2007. "Structural Breaks In Military Expenditures: Evidence For Egypt, Israel,Jordan And Syria," Working Papers 0704, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0704
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://in.bgu.ac.il/en/humsos/Econ/Workingpapers/0704.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl DeRouen Jr, 2000. "The Guns-Growth Relationship in Israel," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 37(1), pages 69-83, January.
    2. Abu-Bader, Suleiman & Abu-Qarn, Aamer S., 2003. "Government expenditures, military spending and economic growth: causality evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 567-583, September.
    3. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Jomana Amara, 2008. "Nato Defense Expenditures: Common Goals Or Diverging Interests? A Structural Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 449-469.
    6. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    8. Julide Yildirim & Selami Sezgin & Nadir Ocal, 2005. "Military Expenditure And Economic Growth In Middle Eastern Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 283-295.
    9. Martin C. McGuire, 1982. "U.S. Assistance, Israeli Allocation, and the Arms Race in the Middle East," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 26(2), pages 199-235, June.
    10. McGuire, Martin C, 1987. "Foreign Assistance, Investment, and Defense: A Methodological Study with an Application to Israel, 1960-1979," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(4), pages 847-873, July.
    11. Jordin S. Cohen & Randolph Stevenson & Alex Mintz & Michael D. Ward, 1996. "Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Israel: The Indirect Link," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 33(3), pages 341-352, August.
    12. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    13. Zeileis, Achim & Kleiber, Christian & Kramer, Walter & Hornik, Kurt, 2003. "Testing and dating of structural changes in practice," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 109-123, October.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    15. J. Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2005. "Models Of Military Expenditure And Growth: A Critical Review," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 449-461.
    16. James H. Lebovic, 2004. "Unity in Action: Explaining Alignment Behavior in the Middle East," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(2), pages 167-189, March.
    17. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    18. Dakurah, A. Henry & Davies, Stephen P. & Sampath, Rajan K., 2001. "Defense spending and economic growth in developing countries: A causality analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 651-658, August.
    19. Lim, David, 1983. "Another Look at Growth and Defense in Less Developed Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(2), pages 377-384, January.
    20. Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-280, January.
    21. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
    22. Michael D. Ward & Alex Mintz, 1987. "Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 31(1), pages 86-105, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Abu-Qarn, Aamer S. & Abu-Bader, Suleiman, 2009. "On the dynamics of the Israeli-Arab arms race," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 931-943, August.
    2. Cem Saatçioðlu & Levent Korap, 2007. "Turkish Money Demand, Revisited: Some Implications For Inflation And Currency Substitution Under Structural Breaks," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 107-124.
    3. Ryan R. Brady & Victoria A. Greenfield, 2010. "COMPETING EXPLANATIONS OF U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRY CONSOLIDATION IN THE 1990s AND THEIR POLICY IMPLICATIONS," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 288-306, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Military Expenditures; Military Burden; Middle-East; Israeli-Arab Conflict; Structural Breaks.;

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bgu:wpaper:0704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Aamer Abu-Qarn). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/edbguil.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.