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A Quasi-Bayesian Analysis of Structural Breaks: China's Output and Productivity Series


  • Xiao-Ming Li

    (Department of Commerce, Massey University-Albany, New Zealand)


A quasi-Bayesian model selection approach is employed to detect the number and dates of structural changes in China's GDP and labour productivity data. It is shown that the predictive likelihood information criterion is valid only among models with well-behaved residuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiao-Ming Li, 2004. "A Quasi-Bayesian Analysis of Structural Breaks: China's Output and Productivity Series," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(1), pages 57-65, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:3:y:2004:i:1:p:57-65

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Raj, Baldev & Slottje, Daniel J, 1994. "The Trend Behavior of Alternative Income Inequality Measures in the United States from 1947-1990 and the Structural Break," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 479-487, October.
    2. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
    3. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    4. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    6. Nunes, Luis C & Newbold, Paul & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1997. "Testing for Unit Roots with Breaks: Evidence on the Great Crash and the Unit Root Hypothesis Reconsidered," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 435-448, November.
    7. Inwood, Kris & Stengos, Thanasis, 1991. "Discontinuities in Canadian economic growth, 1870-1985," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 274-286, July.
    8. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
    9. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    10. Vogelsang, Timothy J., 1997. "Wald-Type Tests for Detecting Breaks in the Trend Function of a Dynamic Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(06), pages 818-848, December.
    11. Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.
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    More about this item


    structural change; predictive likelihood; GDP; labour productivity; China;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)


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