IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/apsrev/v69y1975i03p859-870_24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems: Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe

Author

Listed:
  • McGowan, Patrick J.
  • Rood, Robert M.

Abstract

This paper is a partial systematic test of Morton A. Kaplan's “theory†of alliance behavior in balance of power international systems first proposed in his well-known System and Process in International Politics (1957). Three hypotheses are inferred from Kaplan's writings predicting that in a stable balance of power system, (a) alliances will occur randomly with respect to time; (b) the time intervals between alliances will also be randomly distributed; and (c) a decline in systemic alliance formation rates precedes system changing events, such as general war. We check these hypotheses by applying probability theory, specifically a Poisson model, to the analysis of new data on fifty-five alliances among the five major European powers during the period 1814–1914. Because our research questions are so general, our findings should not be regarded as definitive; however, the data very strongly support our hypotheses. We conclude that Kaplan's verbal model of a balance of power international system has had its credibility enhanced as a result of this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • McGowan, Patrick J. & Rood, Robert M., 1975. "Alliance Behavior in Balance of Power Systems: Applying a Poisson Model to Nineteenth-Century Europe," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 859-870, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:69:y:1975:i:03:p:859-870_24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0003055400243682/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard J. Stoll, 1984. "Bloc Concentration and the Balance of Power," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 25-50, March.
    2. Michael W. Simon & Erik Gartzke, 1996. "Political System Similarity And The Choice of Allies," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 40(4), pages 617-635, December.
    3. Harvey Starr, 1991. "Democratic Dominoes," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(2), pages 356-381, June.
    4. G. D. Hess, 1995. "An Introduction To Lewis Fry Richardson and His Mathematical Theory of War and Peace," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 14(1), pages 77-113, February.
    5. H. W. Houweling & J. B. Kuné, 1984. "Do Outbreaks of War Follow a Poisson-Process?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 51-61, March.
    6. Henry S. Farber & Joanne Gowa, 1995. "Common Interests or Common Polities? Reinterpreting the Democratic Peace," NBER Working Papers 5005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:69:y:1975:i:03:p:859-870_24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/psr .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.