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Nominal Exchange Rate in Chile: Predictions based on technical analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Ana María Abarca G.
  • Felipe Alarcón G.
  • Pablo Pincheira B.
  • Jorge Selaive C.

Abstract

This work presents a review of the main indicators used in the technical analysis of the peso-dollar parity. We explain the usual interpretations of these indicators and we also explore the ability that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may have to predict exchange rate returns at daily frequency. The predictive exercises are carried out using both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. Our results show a robust ability of the RSI to predict nominal exchange rate returns for horizons under seven weeks.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana María Abarca G. & Felipe Alarcón G. & Pablo Pincheira B. & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Nominal Exchange Rate in Chile: Predictions based on technical analysis," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 57-80, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:10:y:2007:i:2:p:57-80
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
    2. Todd E. Clark, 2004. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 115-139.
    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    5. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Shrinkage Based Tests of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 376, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
    7. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    9. Lee, Chun I & Gleason, Kimberly C. & Mathur, Ike, 2001. "Trading rule profits in Latin American currency spot rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 135-156.
    10. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
    11. Kevin Cowan & David Rappoport & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "High Frequency Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 433, Central Bank of Chile.
    12. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    13. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-218, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Sagner, Andres, 2010. "Financial Forecast for the Relative Strength Index," MPRA Paper 25913, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2010.
    2. Rodrigo Alfaro & Andrés Sagner, 2009. "When RSI met the Binomial-Tree," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 520, Central Bank of Chile.

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