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Nominal Exchange Rate in Chile: Predictions based on technical analysis

  • Ana María Abarca G.
  • Felipe Alarcón G.
  • Pablo Pincheira B.
  • Jorge Selaive C.

This work presents a review of the main indicators used in the technical analysis of the peso-dollar parity. We explain the usual interpretations of these indicators and we also explore the ability that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may have to predict exchange rate returns at daily frequency. The predictive exercises are carried out using both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. Our results show a robust ability of the RSI to predict nominal exchange rate returns for horizons under seven weeks.

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File URL: http://www.bcentral.cl/eng/studies/economia-chilena/2007/ago/v10n2ago2007pp57-80.pdf
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Article provided by Central Bank of Chile in its journal Economía Chilena.

Volume (Year): 10 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 57-80

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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:10:y:2007:i:2:p:57-80
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  1. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  2. Todd E. Clark, 2000. "Can out-of-sample forecast comparisons help prevent overfitting?," Research Working Paper RWP 00-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  3. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  4. Kevin Cowan & David Rappoport & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "High Frequency Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 433, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
  6. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  8. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
  9. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  11. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Shrinkage Based Tests of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 376, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  13. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
  14. Lee, Chun I & Gleason, Kimberly C. & Mathur, Ike, 2001. "Trading rule profits in Latin American currency spot rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 135-156.
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