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High Frequency Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Chile

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  • Kevin Cowan
  • David Rappoport
  • Jorge Selaive

Abstract

We estimate a reduced form model for the daily dynamics of the nominal spot exchange rate in Chile. The model does reasonably well in explaining the long and short run dynamics for the peso-dollar exchange rate for the period 2001-2006. In addition, we extend the model to evaluate the effects of the foreign investment of pension funds, foreign exchange rate interventions by the Central Bank and other events whose effects on the exchange rate have policy implications. We find –in line with previous work conducted at the Central Bank - that the impact of Central Bank actions on the FX market seemed to be better channeled through public announcements. Moreover, we find that changes in the pension funds limits on foreign assets had significant, but small and transitory effects on the spot peso-dollar exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Cowan & David Rappoport & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "High Frequency Dynamics of the Exchange Rate in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 433, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:433
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 1999. "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidece from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 54-69, February.
    2. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N. & Rodrigo Valdés P., 2008. "Análisis del tipo de cambio en la práctica," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 313-364 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    3. Cai, Jun & Cheung, Yan-Leung & Lee, Raymond S. K. & Melvin, Michael, 2001. "'Once-in-a-generation' yen volatility in 1998: fundamentals, intervention, and order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 327-347, June.
    4. Bikker, Jacob A. & Spierdijk, Laura & van der Sluis, Pieter Jelle, 2007. "Market impact costs of institutional equity trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 974-1000, October.
    5. Hamid Faruqee, 1995. "Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate: A Stock-Flow Perspective," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 80-107, March.
    6. Sebastian Edwards & Miguel A. Savastano, 1999. "Exchange Rates in Emerging Economies: What Do We Know? What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 7228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
    8. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Bernardo Dominichetti H., 2005. "Revisión Metodológica en el Cálculo del IPE e Implicancias sobre los Modelos de Serie de Tiempo Para el TCR," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 8(1), pages 77-82, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ana María Abarca G. & Felipe Alarcón G. & Pablo Pincheira B. & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Nominal Exchange Rate in Chile: Predictions based on technical analysis," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 57-80, August.
    2. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N. & Rodrigo Valdés P., 2008. "Análisis del tipo de cambio en la práctica," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research,in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 313-364 Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "Chile; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 13/199, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Sebastián Claro & Luis Opazo, 2014. "Monetary policy independence in Chile," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 111-123 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Pablo García & Sindy Olea, 2015. "Inversión Minera y Ajuste Macroeconómico en Australia y Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 56, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. repec:gam:jecnmx:v:5:y:2017:i:3:p:29-:d:103932 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Luis A. Ahumada & Álvaro García & Luis Opazo & Jorge Selaive, 2009. "Interbank Rate and the Liquidity of the Market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 516, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Ana María Abarca & Felipe Alarcón & Pablo Pincheira & Jorge Selaive, 2007. "Chilean Nominal Exchange Rate: Forecasting Based Upon Technical Analysis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 425, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Gabriela Contreras M. & Alfredo Pistelli M. & Camila Sáez M., 2013. "Efecto de Intervenciones Cambiarias Recientes en Economías Emergentes," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 16(1), pages 122-137, April.
    10. Yi Wu, 2013. "What Explains Movements in the Peso/Dollar Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 13/171, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Marco Núñez N. & Rodrigo O. Valdés P., 2008. "Exchange Rate Analysis in Practice," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 61-91, April.

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