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Policy evaluation with Sufficient Macro Statistics -a primer

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  • Geert Mesters
  • Régis Barnichon

Abstract

Impulse responses and forecasts are central concepts for policy makers. In addition, they are also sufficient statistics to solve many important macroeconomic problems, from policy counterfactuals to policy evaluation, and they offer a promising alternative to the standard structural modeling approach. In this review paper, we discuss and extend recent progress on the use of these sufficient macro statistics for policy evaluation. We illustrate the methods by evaluating the performance of the ECB over 1999-2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Geert Mesters & Régis Barnichon, 2025. "Policy evaluation with Sufficient Macro Statistics -a primer," Working Papers 1474, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:1474
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting; impulse responses; optimal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative

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