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A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation

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Abstract

The evaluation of macroeconomic policy decisions has traditionally relied on the formulation of a specific economic model. In this work, we show that two statistics are sufficient to detect, often even correct, non-optimal policies, i.e., policies that do not minimize the loss function. The two sufficient statistics are (i) the effects of policy shocks on the policy objectives, and (ii) forecasts for the policy objectives conditional on the policy decision. Both statistics can be estimated without relying on a specific model. We illustrate the method by studying US monetary policy decisions.

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  • Régis Barnichon & Geert Mesters, 2022. "A Sufficient Statistics Approach for Macro Policy Evaluation," Working Paper Series 2022, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:94570
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2022-15
    Note: First draft: March 2020.
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    Cited by:

    1. Istrefi, Klodiana & Hack, Lukas & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of Systematic Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17999, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, 2023. "What Can Time‐Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(5), pages 1695-1725, September.
    3. Adachi, Takanori, 2023. "A sufficient statistics approach for welfare analysis of oligopolistic third‐degree price discrimination," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal policy; impulse responses; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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