Endogenous shifts in OPEC market power - A Stackelberg oligopoly with fringe
This article proposes a two-stage oligopoly model for the crude oil market. In a game of several Stackelberg leaders, market power increases endogenously as the spare capacity of the competitive fringe goes down. This effect is due to the specific cost function characteristics of extractive industries. The model captures the increase of OPEC market power before the financial crisis and its drastic reduction in the subsequent turmoil at the onset of the global recession. The two-stage model better replicates the price path over the years 2003-2011 than a standard simultaneous-move, one-stage Nash-Cournot model with a fringe. I also discuss how most large-scale numerical equilibrium models, widely applied in the energy sector, over-simplify and misinterpret market power exertion. Furthermore, I show that this two-stage Stackelberg model can be solved numerically as a Mixed Complementarity Problem with heterogeneous firms and discuss uniqueness.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/Email: |
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013.
"A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model,"
Networks and Spatial Economics,
Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
- Ibrahim Abada & Vincent Briat & Steve A. Gabriel & Olivier Massol, 2011. "A Generalized Nash-Cournot Model for the North-Western European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel SubstitutionDemand Function: The GaMMES Model," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-8, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
- Aune, Finn Roar & Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2010.
"Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 389-398, March.
- Aune, Finn Roar & Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2009. "Financial market pressures, tacit collusion and oil price formation," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2009/14, University of Stavanger.
- Daniel Huppmann and Franziska Holz, 2012. "Crude Oil Market Power—A Shift in Recent Years?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
- Neuhoff, Karsten & Barquin, Julian & Boots, Maroeska G. & Ehrenmann, Andreas & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Rijkers, Fieke A.M. & Vazquez, Miguel, 2005. "Network-constrained Cournot models of liberalized electricity markets: the devil is in the details," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 495-525, May.
- James D. Hamilton, 2008.
"Understanding Crude Oil Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
14492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James L. Smith, 2008.
"World Oil: Market or Mayhem?,"
0815, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- Klemperer, Paul D & Meyer, Margaret A, 1989. "Supply Function Equilibria in Oligopoly under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1243-77, November.
- Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz, 2010. "Modeling and Analysis of the International Steam Coal Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 205-230.
- Dibooglu, Sel & AlGudhea, Salim N., 2007. "All time cheaters versus cheaters in distress: An examination of cheating and oil prices in OPEC," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 292-310, September.
- Laitner, John, 1980. ""Rational" Duopoly Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 641-62, December.
- Bresnahan, Timothy F, 1981. "Duopoly Models with Consistent Conjectures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 934-45, December.
- Hoel, Michael, 1978. "Resource extraction, substitute production, and monopoly," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 28-37, October.
- Ali Hortaçsu & Steven L. Puller, 2008. "Understanding strategic bidding in multi-unit auctions: a case study of the Texas electricity spot market," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 39(1), pages 86-114.
- Steve A. Gabriel & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Ruud G. Egging & Hakob Avetisyan & Sauleh Siddiqui, 2010.
"Cartelization in gas markets. Studying the potential for a “Gas OPEC”,"
638, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
- Gabriel, S.A. & Rosendahl, K.E. & Egging, Ruud & Avetisyan, H.G. & Siddiqui, S., 2012. "Cartelization in gas markets: Studying the potential for a “Gas OPEC”," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 137-152.
- Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "The World Gas Model: A Multi-Period Mixed Complementarity Model for the Global Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Salant, Stephen W., 1982. "Imperfect competition in the international energy market: a computerized Nash-Cournot model," MPRA Paper 12021, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Salant, Stephen W, 1976. "Exhaustible Resources and Industrial Structure: A Nash-Cournot Approach to the World Oil Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(5), pages 1079-93, October.
- Johannes Truby and Moritz Paulus, 2012.
"Market Structure Scenarios in International Steam Coal Trade,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
- Trueby, Johannes & Paulus, Moritz, 2011. "Market Structure Scenarios in International Steam Coal Trade," EWI Working Papers 2011-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
- Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
- Hart, Rob & Spiro, Daniel, 2011. "The elephant in Hotelling's room," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7834-7838.
- Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013.
"The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
- Fattouh, Bassam & Kilian, Lutz & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Gustavo Lagos C.C. & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 141-174.
- James L. Smith, 2003.
"Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis,"
0305, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research.
- James L. Smith, 2005. "Inscrutable OPEC? Behavioral Tests of the Cartel Hypothesis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 51-82.
- Kaufmann, Robert K. & Ullman, Ben, 2009. "Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals: Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 550-558, July.
- Kalashnikov, Vyacheslav V. & Bulavsky, Vladimir A. & Kalashnykova, Nataliya I. & Castillo, Felipe J., 2011. "Mixed oligopoly with consistent conjectures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 729-735, May.
- Clemens Haftendorn, 2012. "Evidence of Market Power in the Atlantic Steam Coal Market Using Oligopoly Models with a Competitive Fringe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1185, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Makowski, Louis, 1987. "Are 'Rational Conjectures' Rational?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 35-47, September.
- Yihsu Chen & Benjamin Hobbs & Sven Leyffer & Todd Munson, 2006. "Leader-Follower Equilibria for Electric Power and NO x Allowances Markets," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 3(4), pages 307-330, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:79758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.