IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aen/journl/ej33-4-01.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Crude Oil Market Power—A Shift in Recent Years?

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Huppmann and Franziska Holz

Abstract

We investigate the exertion of market power in the global crude oil market over the past years. Recognizing the difficulty of identifying market power in the crude oil market by empirical studies, we propose a numerical partial equilibrium model formulated as a mixed complementarity problem. Our approach allows for strategic behavior in a Nash-Cournot market, a Stackelberg leader-follower game, an OPEC oligopoly or cartel, as well as perfect competition. To take account of liquid spot markets, the model specifically includes arbitragers to capture the effect of global crude oil market integration. Our results indicate a market structure shift over the past years. Reported quantities and prices before the 2008 turmoil are close to those derived from a Stackelberg market simulation, with Saudi Arabia acting as Stackelberg leader vis-a`-visa non-cooperativeOPEC oligopoly and a competitive fringe. However, in 2008 and 2009, observed prices are closer to the competitive benchmark. We conclude that OPEC suppliers’ ability to exert market power was reduced in the 2008 turmoil and its aftermath.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Huppmann and Franziska Holz, 2012. "Crude Oil Market Power—A Shift in Recent Years?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej33-4-01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=2493
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to IAEE members and subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    2. Holz, Franziska & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia, 2008. "A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 766-788, May.
    3. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Gustavo Lagos C.C. & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 141-174.
    4. Aune, Finn Roar & Mohn, Klaus & Osmundsen, Petter & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2010. "Financial market pressure, tacit collusion and oil price formation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 389-398, March.
    5. Jan Bentzen, 2007. "Does OPEC influence crude oil prices? Testing for co-movements and causality between regional crude oil prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(11), pages 1375-1385.
    6. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz, 2010. "Modeling and Analysis of the International Steam Coal Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 205-230.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Langer, Lissy & Huppmann, Daniel & Holz, Franziska, 2016. "Lifting the US crude oil export ban: A numerical partial equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 258-266.
    2. Jozef Baruník, Evzen Kocenda and Lukáa Vácha, 2015. "Volatility Spillovers Across Petroleum Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    3. Daniel Huppmann, 2013. "Endogenous Shifts in OPEC Market Power: A Stackelberg Oligopoly with Fringe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1313, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Alberto Behar & Robert A. Ritz, 2016. "OPEC vs US shale oil: Analyzing the shift to a market-share strategy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1623, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Giulietti, Monica & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2014. "Crude oil price differentials, product heterogeneity and institutional arrangements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 28-32.
    6. repec:eee:jeeman:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:206-223 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Chul-Yong Lee & Sung-Yoon Huh, 2017. "Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, January.
    8. Massol, O. & Rifaat, O., 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, City University London.
    9. Coulomb, Renaud & Henriet, Fanny, 2018. "The Grey Paradox: How fossil-fuel owners can benefit from carbon taxation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 206-223.
    10. Huppmann, Daniel & Egging, Ruud, 2014. "Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 483-500.
    11. Ansari, Dawud, 2017. "OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and the shale revolution: Insights from equilibrium modelling and oil politics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 166-178.
    12. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric & Hofkes, Marjan W., 2015. "Modeling peak oil and the geological constraints on oil production," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 36-56.
    13. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "OPEC and non-OPEC oil production and the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 364-378.
    14. repec:eee:eneeco:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:185-198 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Shantayanan Devarajan & Lili Mottaghi, "undated". "MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2016," World Bank Other Operational Studies 24684, The World Bank.
    16. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:411-420 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Olufolajimi Oke & Daniel Huppmann & Max Marshall & Ricky Poulton & Sauleh Siddiqui, 2016. "Mitigating Environmental and Public-Safety Risks of United States Crude-by-Rail Transport," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1575, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Lorenczik, Stefan & Panke, Timo, 2016. "Assessing market structures in resource markets — An empirical analysis of the market for metallurgical coal using various equilibrium models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 179-187.
    19. Lorenczik, Stefan & Malischek, Raimund & Trüby, Johannes, 2017. "Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 605-618.
    20. Trüby, Johannes, 2013. "Strategic behaviour in international metallurgical coal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 147-157.
    21. Daniel Huppmann & Franziska Holz, 2015. "What about the OPEC Cartel?," DIW Roundup: Politik im Fokus 58, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    22. Okullo, Samuel J. & Reynès, Frédéric, 2016. "Imperfect cartelization in OPEC," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 333-344.
    23. repec:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:98-115 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Alberto Behar & Robert A Ritz, 2016. "An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash," IMF Working Papers 16/131, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej33-4-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Williams). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/iaeeeea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.