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Market Structure Scenarios in International Steam Coal Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Johannes Trueby

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Moritz Paulus

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

Abstract

The seaborne steam coal market changed in recent years. Trade volumes grew dynamically, important players emerged and since 2007 prices increased significantly and remained relatively high since then. In this paper we analyse market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios in this market: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. We conclude from our results that international steam coal trade is not perfectly competitive as there is a large spread between marginal costs and prices and a low capacity utilisation in 2008. Further, trade flows are generally more diversified in reality than in the competitive scenario. However, also the Cournot scenarios fail to accurately explain real market outcomes. We conclude that only more sophisticated models of strategic behaviour can predict market equilibria in international steam coal trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Johannes Trueby & Moritz Paulus, 2011. "Market Structure Scenarios in International Steam Coal Trade," EWI Working Papers 2011-2, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_002
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    Cited by:

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    3. Haftendorn, C. & Kemfert, C. & Holz, F., 2012. "What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 274-283.
    4. Maryke C. Rademeyer, 2021. "Investigating the outcome for South African coal supply to the domestic market when faced with declining demand for exported coal," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(3), pages 441-453, October.
    5. Parry, Ian, 2020. "Increasing carbon pricing in the EU: Evaluating the options," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Lorenczik, Stefan & Malischek, Raimund & Trüby, Johannes, 2017. "Modeling strategic investment decisions in spatial markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 605-618.
    7. Jorrit Gosens & Alex Turnbull & Frank Jotzo, 2021. "An installation-level model of China's coal sector shows how its decarbonization and energy security plans will reduce overseas coal imports," Papers 2112.06357, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    8. Trüby, Johannes, 2013. "Strategic behaviour in international metallurgical coal markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 147-157.
    9. Franziska Holz & Clemens Haftendorn & Roman Mendelevitch & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2016. "A Model of the International Steam Coal Market (COALMOD-World)," Data Documentation 85, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Mr. David Coady & Ian W.H. Parry & Louis Sears & Baoping Shang, 2015. "How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?," IMF Working Papers 2015/105, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz & Claudia Kemfert & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2013. "Global steam coal markets until 2030: perspectives on production, trade and consumption under increasing carbon constraints," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 4, pages 103-122, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Julien Xavier Daubanes & Fanny Henriet & Katheline Schubert, 2017. "More Gas, Less Coal, and Less CO2? Unilateral CO2 Reduction Policy with More than One Carbon Energy Source," IFRO Working Paper 2017/09, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    13. Ian Parry & Chandara Veung & Dirk Heine, 2015. "How Much Carbon Pricing Is In Countries’ Own Interests? The Critical Role Of Co-Benefits," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(04), pages 1-26, November.
    14. Parry, Ian, 2015. "Designing Fiscal Policy to Address the External Costs of Energy," International Review of Environmental and Resource Economics, now publishers, vol. 8(1), pages 1-56, May.
    15. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous shifts in OPEC market power - A Stackelberg oligopoly with fringe," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79758, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Moritz Paulus & Johannes Trueby & Christian Growitsch, 2011. "Nations as Strategic Players in Global Commodity Markets: Evidence from World Coal Trade," EWI Working Papers 2011-4, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    17. Harald Hecking, 2015. "CO2 abatement policies in the power sector under an oligopolistic gas market," EWI Working Papers 2014-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    18. Moritz Paulus, 2012. "How are investment decisions in the steam coal market affected by demand uncertainty and buyer-side market power?," EWI Working Papers 2012-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    19. Ian W.H. Parry & Baoping Shang & Mr. Philippe Wingender & Nate Vernon-Lin & Tarun Narasimhan, 2016. "Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective?," IMF Working Papers 2016/148, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Rademeyer, Maryke C. & Minnitt, Richard C.A. & Falcon, Rosemary M.S., 2018. "Revisiting operating cost in resource extraction industries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 159-164.
    21. Cartelle Barros, Juan José & Lara Coira, Manuel & de la Cruz López, María Pilar & del Caño Gochi, Alfredo, 2015. "Assessing the global sustainability of different electricity generation systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 473-489.
    22. Maryke Rademeyer & Richard Minnitt & Rosemary Falcon, 2021. "Multi-product coal distribution and price discovery for the domestic market via mathematical optimisation," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 34(1), pages 113-126, April.
    23. Ian Parry & Victor Mylonas & Nate Vernon, 2021. "Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(4), pages 797-823.
    24. Pao-Yu Oei & Roman Mendelevitch, 2019. "Prospects for steam coal exporters in the era of climate policies: a case study of Colombia," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 73-91, January.

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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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