COALMOD-World: A Model to Assess International Coal Markets until 2030
Coal continues to be an important fuel in many countries' energy mix and, despite the climate change concerns, it is likely to maintain this position for the next decades. In this paper a numerical model is developed to investigate the evolution of the international market for steam coal, the coal type used for electricity generation. The main focus is on future trade ows and investments in production and transport infrastructure until 2030. "COALMOD-World" is an equilibrium model, formulated in the complementarity format. It includes all major steam coal exporting and importing countries and represents the international trade as one globalized market. Some suppliers of coal are at the same time major consumers, such as the USA and China. Therefore, domestic markets are also included in the model to analyze their interaction with the international market. Because of the different qualities of steam coal, we include different heating values depending on the origin of the coal. At the same time we observe the mass-specific constraints on production, transport and export capacity. The time horizon of our analysis is until 2030, in 5-year steps. Production costs change endogenously over time. Moreover, endogenous investments are included based on a net present value optimization approach and and the shadow prices of capacities constraints. Investments can be carried out in production, inland freight capacities (rail in most countries), and export terminals. The paper finishes with an application of the model to a base case scenario and suggestions for alternative scenarios.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
- Aleksandar Zaklan & Astrid Cullmann & Anne Neumann & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2009.
"The Globalization of Steam Coal Markets and the Role of Logistics: An Empirical Analysis,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
956, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Zaklan, Aleksandar & Cullmann, Astrid & Neumann, Anne & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2012. "The globalization of steam coal markets and the role of logistics: An empirical analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 105-116.
- Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "The World Gas Model: A Multi-Period Mixed Complementarity Model for the Global Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ruud Egging & Steven A. Gabriel & Franziska Holz & Jifang Zhuang, 2007.
"A Complementarity Model for the European Natural Gas Market,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
732, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
- Daniel Huppmann & Franziska Holz, 2009. "A Model for the Global Crude Oil Market Using a Multi-Pool MCP Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 869, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Raymond Li & Roselyne Joyeux & Ronald D. Ripple, 2010. "International Steam Coal Market Integration," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 181-202.
- Dahl, Carol A., 1993. "A survey of energy demand elasticities in support of the development of the NEMS," MPRA Paper 13962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz, 2010. "Modeling and Analysis of the International Steam Coal Trade," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 205-230.
- Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1067. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.